PM on @theprojecttv strongly downplaying the role of vaccines in ending this lockdown.
This is a false dichotomy that many commentators make - lockdown vs vaccines. The additive effect of blitz vaccinating the high risk LGAs could alter transmission dynamics significantly.
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Yes. This isn’t the solution to the current problem
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Definitely a solution to future problems, like reopening both quickly and safely
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So whether it’s worth it/not Depends on few things > how long we foresee lockdown lasting, without vaccinations. > if we perceive a even a modestly earlier reopening to be ‘worthwhile’ > how much 15% of the suburb having 2 doses in 1 month will cut down LGA Reff and aid tracing
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And this is based on your assumptions which I think are reasonable. Stepping back my first concern is that high level currently discussions are about states going ‘gimme the vaccines’ vs ‘nah fuck off’ rather than what we are discussing - whether it is practical/likely to help.
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Doesn’t the vaccine have an effect on transmission (even if not huge) after 1 dose?
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You also have to factor in the impacts of bringing people together to be vaccinated as well - which isn’t to say it might not be a good idea but to say - its complicated.
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