PM on @theprojecttv strongly downplaying the role of vaccines in ending this lockdown.
This is a false dichotomy that many commentators make - lockdown vs vaccines. The additive effect of blitz vaccinating the high risk LGAs could alter transmission dynamics significantly.
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Unless you think the lockdown is going to end within 4 weeks (which I can’t see happening), then a blitz starting tomorrow (that should have started 4 weeks ago) will still benefit.
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I'm not saying there would not be benefit (every vaccine dose is beneficial!) but it would take a truly massive blitz to have a substantial impact even in 4 weeks time
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But restrictions are going to be needed for several weeks anyway, the outbreak could last for months. That’s enough time for vaccines to kick in surely.
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Gotta factor in the time taken to vaccinate. Affected LGAs house ~1mil people, so vaccinating an extra ~2-300k with 2 doses over two months (say) by diverting doses from elsewhere would then start seeing large impacts in more like 10 weeks time
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Just a 20-30% boost sounds like a failure of imagination at this stage, surely we can do way more than that with outdoor mass vaccination? In Oct we expect ~3M/week. NSW is 1/3 of the population, so 1M/week. If we divert supply to Sydney for a couple of weeks we could do it now.
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Yep, have to agree here. Would make a very marginal difference rn.
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I agree it would have made a big difference if high % of at least the most vulnerable had dose 1 already but to not consider surge vaccination in hardest hit Sydney LGAs is nonsensical to me. 1/
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We have to assume lockdown and
cases will still be an issue in the next 4 weeks so surely the benefit (in the weeks to come) outweighs NOT doing anything additional?
Genuine debate.
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Ping @sailorrooscout@kallmemeg@ProfPCDoherty@BallouxFrancois@profmiketoole@GregDore2
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Even then it wouldn't alter the"transmission dynamics" in any significant way. The fraction of vaccinated would still be too small. Enter UK.
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