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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 22

      A fairly well-demonstrated fact about COVID-19 and lockdowns is that the more severe restrictions tend to have smaller marginal benefits once enactedpic.twitter.com/IVMAT3g3YV

      28 replies 64 retweets 206 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 22

      In practice, this means that the reduction in transmission for, say, limiting travel to 5km radius is probably quite small once you've already implemented other interventions such as stay-at-home orders

      3 replies 2 retweets 70 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 22

      In other words, when we talk about 'hard' vs other lockdowns, the language often doesn't match the evidence. There's no strong reason to believe that adding small extra limits on behavior will have a large impact on the spread of COVID-19

      6 replies 10 retweets 102 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 22

      This is not to say that further restrictions will not do anything, but it is worth remembering that adding more restrictions on top of stay-at-home orders and the like may not actually impact infection numbers all that much

      11:18 PM - 22 Jul 2021
      • 8 Retweets
      • 80 Likes
      • Joj Jack Lisa, a spectacled flying fox Annika Baker (She/her) Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität Letoto Harry Hong Raluca Mihalache-Lehto blaaaa
      15 replies 8 retweets 80 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Ross Grayson, MPH, CIH‏ @EcoLogicalNet Jul 22
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp unroll

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp Jul 22
          Replying to @EcoLogicalNet

          Saluti, here is your unroll: A fairly well-demonstrated fact about COVID-19 and lockdowns is that… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1418455383207600135.html … Enjoy :) 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Jake Brown‏ @browndogstales Jul 22
          Replying to @GidMK

          One of the effective things about 'go hard, go fast' to me, is a simplicity & democracy of the messaging though - & I think that has some cut though impact for fast behaviour change action.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Megan Johnston‏Verified account @JohnstonMegan Jul 22
          Replying to @browndogstales @GidMK

          I’d assume that too but looking at this chart I’m not so sure - both cities hit a mobility score of 0 by the first or second day of official lockdown (Syd a slower slide starting a week before restrictions so some difference prior to health orders) https://rsbyrne.github.io/mobility-aus/products/sixtydays.png …

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Dani Sharon‏ @biophilo Jul 22
          Replying to @GidMK

          The question is however, whether the results would be the same with Delta with its higher transmissibility and shorter incubation time.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Ben McCombe‏ @BenMcCombe Jul 22
          Replying to @GidMK

          Though even a small difference can impact on growth/reduction in case numbers, especially when the R is hovering around 1. Huge difference between an R of 1.05 and 0.95.

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Bryan Breguet‏ @2closetocall Jul 22
          Replying to @GidMK

          That would explain why BC was pretty successful with (overall) more moderate measures

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Therase  💉 💉O/AZ  🐀Wing Defence for the Sewer Rats‏ @TheraseWeeks Jul 23
          Replying to @2closetocall @GidMK

          Respectfully I wouldn't say so. BC has not managed to get the seven day average to under 24 cases a day in the last 12 months. Since last northern summer 2020 numbers have only fallen dramatically with vaccines. Getting the last bit down to zero is the hardest bit.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. The Picnics for All Chocobo 💉 💉‏ @noreasonspec Jul 22
          Replying to @GidMK

          1% of venue alerts in Sydney fit into the Victorian curfew time I suspect this is why Vic never brings curfew back, it does shit all

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Ericasbestlife‏ @EricaCampbell48 Jul 22
          Replying to @noreasonspec @GidMK

          It actually forces us all into the grocery stores together.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies

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