In practice, this means that the reduction in transmission for, say, limiting travel to 5km radius is probably quite small once you've already implemented other interventions such as stay-at-home orders
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In other words, when we talk about 'hard' vs other lockdowns, the language often doesn't match the evidence. There's no strong reason to believe that adding small extra limits on behavior will have a large impact on the spread of COVID-19
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This is not to say that further restrictions will not do anything, but it is worth remembering that adding more restrictions on top of stay-at-home orders and the like may not actually impact infection numbers all that much
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But that's not really the point of these measures in the context of adequate test and trace. The more restrictive measures are about ensuring comprehensive (2nd degree contacts) contact tracing remains possible.
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I'm not sure that really has an impact - I feel like there's a belief that a 'harder' lockdown will necessarily make an outsized difference regardless of the intended effect
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Areas with the harshest lockdowns tend to have the worst covid outbreaks. In the same way that cancer patients tend to have the most chemo. Just wondering how we are controlling for that?
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The widely quoted Ioannidis study on effectiveness of lockdowns acknowledged the problem and ignored it otherwise.
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On the other hand, stricter restrictions may achieve elimination faster. Here is NZ study from
@PunahaMatatini https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/11/16/economic-comparison-of-the-use-of-alert-levels-3-and-4-for-aucklands-august-outbreak/ …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Doesn’t this depend on what the definition of a ‘stay-at-home order’ is though? They have varied quite drastically in different places.
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I would be interested in your take on this