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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 22

    A fairly well-demonstrated fact about COVID-19 and lockdowns is that the more severe restrictions tend to have smaller marginal benefits once enactedpic.twitter.com/IVMAT3g3YV

    11:18 PM - 22 Jul 2021
    • 64 Retweets
    • 206 Likes
    • Juliette O'Brien Joj jake bennie - Lisa, a spectacled flying fox Morgan Ben - Teach- C Full AZ power! Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität Nick Birrell Sarah Joseph
    28 replies 64 retweets 206 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 22

        In practice, this means that the reduction in transmission for, say, limiting travel to 5km radius is probably quite small once you've already implemented other interventions such as stay-at-home orders

        3 replies 2 retweets 70 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 22

        In other words, when we talk about 'hard' vs other lockdowns, the language often doesn't match the evidence. There's no strong reason to believe that adding small extra limits on behavior will have a large impact on the spread of COVID-19

        6 replies 10 retweets 102 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 22

        This is not to say that further restrictions will not do anything, but it is worth remembering that adding more restrictions on top of stay-at-home orders and the like may not actually impact infection numbers all that much

        15 replies 8 retweets 80 likes
        Show this thread
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Christopher McMaster‏ @DrCMcMaster Jul 22
        Replying to @GidMK

        But that's not really the point of these measures in the context of adequate test and trace. The more restrictive measures are about ensuring comprehensive (2nd degree contacts) contact tracing remains possible.

        1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 22
        Replying to @DrCMcMaster

        I'm not sure that really has an impact - I feel like there's a belief that a 'harder' lockdown will necessarily make an outsized difference regardless of the intended effect

        2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. AC‏ @AmolC1 Jul 22
        Replying to @GidMK

        Areas with the harshest lockdowns tend to have the worst covid outbreaks. In the same way that cancer patients tend to have the most chemo. Just wondering how we are controlling for that?

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Mike Dee‏ @MikeDeeeeeee Jul 23
        Replying to @AmolC1 @GidMK

        The widely quoted Ioannidis study on effectiveness of lockdowns acknowledged the problem and ignored it otherwise.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Maksym Polyakov‏ @MaksymPolyakov Jul 22
        Replying to @GidMK

        On the other hand, stricter restrictions may achieve elimination faster. Here is NZ study from @PunahaMatatini https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/11/16/economic-comparison-of-the-use-of-alert-levels-3-and-4-for-aucklands-august-outbreak/ …

        0 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
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      1. Angelo‏ @angeloabil Jul 22
        Replying to @GidMK @KetanJ0

        👋 I would be interested in your take on this 👇 https://burnet.edu.au/news/1465_likely_stage_4_tighter_restriction_levels_will_be_needed_to_control_the_current_delta_variant_outbreak_in_nsw_new_modelling_shows …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Rachael Bott‏ @RachaelBott1 Jul 23
        Replying to @GidMK

        Doesn’t this depend on what the definition of a ‘stay-at-home order’ is though? They have varied quite drastically in different places.

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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