4/ But that's only the beginning of the problems. The big concern for me, as someone who has worked in Indigenous communities all over Australia, is what happens when we get an outbreak in one. I wrote about what will happen at the beginning of March 2020:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/12/mayhem-looms-just-around-the-corner-diary-from-the-frontline-of-the-coronavirus-health-crisis …
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If an 80%+ vaccination rate is achieved and restrictive measures are removed, then the outcome is obvious. Exponential growth. The mathematics has been very clear about this for quite a while. Even if vaccine reduces severe outcomes, a small percent of a very large number is big.
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A big concern is what uncontrolled spread does in the unvaccinated (and even the vaxed immunosuppressed/frail etc) Given the trend of cases and hospitalisations in the UK (their fully vaxed + prev infected must be close to if not >80%), Aus should tread *very* cautiously.
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With the current generation of vaccines it is now clear that there are still going to be more than enough adverse outcomes, even at high rates of coverage, to make life very difficult. We need to employ vaccines plus all NPIs to keep R below 1.https://twitter.com/Caro_Dew_/status/1417375225180672000?s=19 …
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Some places have reached that. It’s not enough.
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My concerns with reaching an 80%+ vaccination rate:
1. At 80%, maybe less, I’m concerned the federal gov will ‘let it rip’.