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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      4/n Firstly - lockdowns cannot possibly cause massive increases to short-term deaths. We used the World Mortality Dataset to look at this, thanks again @ArielKarlinsky and @hippopedoid

      2 replies 24 retweets 85 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      5/n Places WITH lockdowns but WITHOUT COVID-19 epidemics did not see excess deaths. There are numerous examples of this, and it largely invalidates the idea that lockdowns in and of themselves cause fatalitiespic.twitter.com/sW7kB6jA2v

      1 reply 19 retweets 76 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      6/n Importantly, this DOES NOT MEAN that lockdowns necessarily prevented deaths, as comparisons such as the UK vs Sweden show, but that it is not consistent with the evidence to claim that lockdowns have large impacts on short-term mortalitypic.twitter.com/UBfKZsvaCv

      4 replies 7 retweets 43 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      7/n After that, we get into the REALLY complex stuff. We looked at: 1. Disruptions to health services 2. Mental health/suicide 3. Global health programmes

      1 reply 4 retweets 37 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      8/n To cut a long story short, the evidence for all of these is mixed. There's some data showing impact of government interventions. There's also data showing that large numbers of COVID-19 cases are bad as well

      1 reply 6 retweets 41 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      9/n Mental health in particular is a tricky subject. Lockdowns certainly have not been associated with increases in suicide, but there have been consistent worries about mental health

      2 replies 9 retweets 48 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      10/n That being said, there's also evidence that people dying from COVID-19 in large numbers is not, uh, ideal for mental health, and disentangling those two impacts is extraordinarily hardpic.twitter.com/9JRg7HQt8y

      1 reply 15 retweets 81 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      11/n What does this all mean? Well, it takes us back to the start of the thread Lockdowns = bad COVID-19 = probably worse

      1 reply 17 retweets 82 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      12/n If government interventions against COVID-19 work, then it's likely that they are beneficial on the whole. There may be lockdowns that have been both good and bad, and it will take us a long time to solve that riddle

      5 replies 12 retweets 71 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      13/n The bottom line is pretty simple really - all of this is far more complex than a simple yes/no. Rather than the tedious rhetoric of "lockdowns bad", we should be asking WHICH lockdowns were good/bad, and WHY

      3 replies 6 retweets 48 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      14/n All that being said, based on current best evidence we do not think it is possible to say definitively what harms lockdowns do have to health, but we can say that it is likely that these harms are not worse than the disease itself

      7:56 PM - 19 Jul 2021
      • 4 Retweets
      • 39 Likes
      • ᚨ Rat King Crimson Molly Moggie 𝗢𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗹 ⭐ Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität 🌱VAX, MASK, & PURIFY AIR Tak Kate Steinmann Ivy G
      2 replies 4 retweets 39 likes
        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

          15/n Thanks to the amazing team who've worked on this @DrSamirBhatt @LeaMerone @GYamey @flaxter and all the rest of the authors!

          7 replies 1 retweet 37 likes
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        1. oatc‏ @_oatc_ Jul 19
          Replying to @GidMK

          Perhaps if one were to consider lockdowns in the context of other anti-airborne virus measures, like testing, local tracing, masks/respirators, ventilation, public health information, clear public health messaging, quarantining with support, decisive government…?

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