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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      BIG NEWS New paper out in BMJ Global Health with a brilliant team of researchers on the health impacts of lockdowns Long story short - lockdowns aren't ideal, but COVID-19 outbreaks are probably much worse 1/nhttps://gh.bmj.com/content/6/8/e006653 …

      34 replies 344 retweets 781 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      2/n What did we do in this paper? It's a narrative review, so basically represents our knowledge and opinions about the topic, using all of the data that we could find ourselvespic.twitter.com/x72YPKQvgr

      1 reply 12 retweets 55 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      3/n That means that this isn't the definitive word on lockdowns, or interventions like them Having said that, we do think that there are a few points that are extremely clear from the evidence to date

      1 reply 5 retweets 43 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      4/n Firstly - lockdowns cannot possibly cause massive increases to short-term deaths. We used the World Mortality Dataset to look at this, thanks again @ArielKarlinsky and @hippopedoid

      2 replies 24 retweets 85 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

      5/n Places WITH lockdowns but WITHOUT COVID-19 epidemics did not see excess deaths. There are numerous examples of this, and it largely invalidates the idea that lockdowns in and of themselves cause fatalitiespic.twitter.com/sW7kB6jA2v

      7:01 PM - 19 Jul 2021
      • 19 Retweets
      • 76 Likes
      • Matsuineko Rat King Crimson Matthew Harry Hong Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität 008 🪀 aka 🌱VAX, MASK, & PURIFY AIR Tak Rachel Enns🇮🇱🇨🇦
      1 reply 19 retweets 76 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

          6/n Importantly, this DOES NOT MEAN that lockdowns necessarily prevented deaths, as comparisons such as the UK vs Sweden show, but that it is not consistent with the evidence to claim that lockdowns have large impacts on short-term mortalitypic.twitter.com/UBfKZsvaCv

          4 replies 7 retweets 43 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

          7/n After that, we get into the REALLY complex stuff. We looked at: 1. Disruptions to health services 2. Mental health/suicide 3. Global health programmes

          1 reply 4 retweets 37 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

          8/n To cut a long story short, the evidence for all of these is mixed. There's some data showing impact of government interventions. There's also data showing that large numbers of COVID-19 cases are bad as well

          1 reply 6 retweets 41 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

          9/n Mental health in particular is a tricky subject. Lockdowns certainly have not been associated with increases in suicide, but there have been consistent worries about mental health

          2 replies 9 retweets 48 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

          10/n That being said, there's also evidence that people dying from COVID-19 in large numbers is not, uh, ideal for mental health, and disentangling those two impacts is extraordinarily hardpic.twitter.com/9JRg7HQt8y

          1 reply 15 retweets 81 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

          11/n What does this all mean? Well, it takes us back to the start of the thread Lockdowns = bad COVID-19 = probably worse

          1 reply 17 retweets 82 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

          12/n If government interventions against COVID-19 work, then it's likely that they are beneficial on the whole. There may be lockdowns that have been both good and bad, and it will take us a long time to solve that riddle

          5 replies 12 retweets 71 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

          13/n The bottom line is pretty simple really - all of this is far more complex than a simple yes/no. Rather than the tedious rhetoric of "lockdowns bad", we should be asking WHICH lockdowns were good/bad, and WHY

          3 replies 6 retweets 48 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

          14/n All that being said, based on current best evidence we do not think it is possible to say definitively what harms lockdowns do have to health, but we can say that it is likely that these harms are not worse than the disease itself

          2 replies 4 retweets 39 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 19

          15/n Thanks to the amazing team who've worked on this @DrSamirBhatt @LeaMerone @GYamey @flaxter and all the rest of the authors!

          7 replies 1 retweet 37 likes
          Show this thread
        12. End of conversation

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