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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays Jul 15

      Hmm... Is Ivermectin for Covid-19 Based on Fraudulent Research? by @GidMKhttps://link.medium.com/xBkqhpg9Uhb 

      246 replies 56 retweets 235 likes
    2. Anatoly Lubarsky‏ @anatoly Jul 15
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @GidMK

      While I think it is a waste of time to review preprints... The math used in the article is wrong. I made a simulation in Excel n=100; mean=18 and deviation=8 with 50% (and not 80%) having exactly 9 and 25. It is very possible given moderate and severe disease duration.pic.twitter.com/VXMf03fobK

      3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    3. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen Jul 15
      Replying to @anatoly @ScottAdamsSays @GidMK

      I'd be happy to take a look at that simulation. Presumably it also works in Google Sheets?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. Anatoly Lubarsky‏ @anatoly Jul 15
      Replying to @sTeamTraen @ScottAdamsSays @GidMK

      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hd-UdfnAAB7Oq_ecYg99z2EPCKc2CY1FcLHRqXCna3s/edit?usp=sharing …

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 15
      Replying to @anatoly @sTeamTraen @ScottAdamsSays

      Huh, I'll update the piece - you're correct that it's not necessarily 80%, but rather just the majority of values. Worth noting that in your simulation the values are now all exactly 9, 10, 24, or 25, which is similarly worrying

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen Jul 16
      Replying to @GidMK @anatoly @ScottAdamsSays

      Also note that if the rounded-to-8 SD is even slightly higher, say 7.6 or 7.7, the number of 10s and 24s drops dramatically. So this simulation is close to the very best possible for the authors. /

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen Jul 16
      Replying to @sTeamTraen @GidMK and

      My fault, I should have chosen 0 instead of 1 in the number of decimal places for SPRITE and it would have found some of these options. /

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen Jul 16
      Replying to @sTeamTraen @GidMK and

      That would still have been a super-weird result, though. As in, would never happen with real patients. 🤷‍♂️

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    9. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen Jul 16
      Replying to @sTeamTraen @GidMK and

      Here is what the chart looks like with the _most favourable possible outcome_ for the authors.pic.twitter.com/3ZhUEGJZEb

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 16
      Replying to @sTeamTraen @anatoly @ScottAdamsSays

      Yeh, it's still astonishingly implausible. That's not a distribution you see in real life

      5:29 AM - 16 Jul 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • aure Jack Lawrence Ariel Karlinsky
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Anatoly Lubarsky‏ @anatoly Jul 16
          Replying to @GidMK @sTeamTraen @ScottAdamsSays

          >>in your simulation the values are now all exactly 9, 10, 24, or 25,<< I just wanted to show the error. You can as well have numbers in between 9 and 25 and still be well under 80% for 9 and 25.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Anatoly Lubarsky‏ @anatoly Jul 16
          Replying to @anatoly @GidMK and

          >>That's not a distribution you see in real life<< 9 days it is when PCR would show negative for moderate illness. Let's say they do PCR every 3 days. Concentration of 9s => plausible. Severe patients to stay mostly 24-25 days - less likely but also plausible.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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