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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Alastair McAlpine, MD‏Verified account @AlastairMcA30 Jul 15
      Replying to @NeilTStacey

      Alastair McAlpine, MD Retweeted Health Nerd

      Not really: all benefit rests with essentially 2 studies: Elgazzar and Niaee. One of which is fraud and the other is dodgy. Dr Hill has responded to me that he’s already re-running his meta-analysis. So… very supported.https://twitter.com/gidmk/status/1415906647185125377?s=21 …

      Alastair McAlpine, MD added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Replying to @AlastairMcA30 @pash22 @DrAndrewHill
      Yep. It's also worth noting that once you exclude Elgazzar, any potential benefit entirely rests on another very high-risk study Niaee et al, which has some extremely worrying aspects H/T @K_Sheldrick pic.twitter.com/nu7qwQh3wl
      2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 15
      Replying to @AlastairMcA30 @NeilTStacey

      Also worth noting that the Hill meta-analysis didn't entirely exclude Elgazzar - the leave-one-out approach excluded either of the estimates (mild/severe) from the paper, but not the entire studypic.twitter.com/aI3LPHnKBW

      1 reply 2 retweets 9 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 15
      Replying to @GidMK @AlastairMcA30 @NeilTStacey

      Here's what I get when I run the standard inverse variance random-effects model in Stata 15 using the metan command. Left including, right excluding Elgazzarpic.twitter.com/mWKmIgI1Z5

      3 replies 4 retweets 10 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 15
      Replying to @GidMK @AlastairMcA30 @NeilTStacey

      ...and then, excluding Niaeepic.twitter.com/wUdF6WrYW5

      2 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
    5. Alastair McAlpine, MD‏Verified account @AlastairMcA30 Jul 15
      Replying to @GidMK @NeilTStacey

      Fancy that… it’s like, when you exclude the dodgy trials, there doesn’t seem to be much benefit…

      3 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
    6. Centinel‏ @centinel5051 Jul 15
      Replying to @AlastairMcA30 @GidMK @NeilTStacey

      And if you include the last one...https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-021-06348-5 …

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Dr Neil T Stacey‏ @NeilTStacey Jul 15
      Replying to @centinel5051 @AlastairMcA30 @GidMK

      That study has lower hospitalization in the IVM group (~0.67 RR) but can't conclude anything either way because of small sample size (35 incidences). Adding it into a meta-analysis would have little effect.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Alastair McAlpine, MD‏Verified account @AlastairMcA30 Jul 15
      Replying to @NeilTStacey @centinel5051 @GidMK

      According to Gid, it actually does have an effect. It tips the scale to ‘no benefit’ even if you leave the dodgy Niaee study in…

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 15
      Replying to @AlastairMcA30 @NeilTStacey @centinel5051

      Yep. The number of deaths is small, but once you remove Elgazzar the benefit is marginal no matter how you run the analysis, so even a small change results in a CI crossing 1

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    10. Dr Neil T Stacey‏ @NeilTStacey Jul 16
      Replying to @GidMK @AlastairMcA30 @centinel5051

      I'd need a bit of convincing that a study with 35 hospitalizations total significantly affects a meta-analysis of mortality. What were the number of deaths in each group? I couldn't find that number in a quick scan of the paper.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 16
      Replying to @NeilTStacey @AlastairMcA30 @centinel5051

      4/250 deaths IVM, 3/251 deaths control. It's not an enormous effect, but as I said once you remove the potentially fraudulent research the confidence interval is already close to or crossing 1 anyway depending on how you run the analysis

      12:36 AM - 16 Jul 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Alastair McAlpine, MD
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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