Gideon is being modest here: this is MASSIVE. A single RCT, which has caused 2 meta-analyses to show benefit of ivermectin, is almost certainly FRAUD. Remove that study, and both meta-analyses (Lawrie and Hill) show NO benefit. Astonishing story.https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1415764372362649601 …
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Replying to @AlastairMcA30
@AlastairMcA30, you're making unsupported claims again. the Hill review included leave-one-out sensitivity analysis, and still found significance with this study's omission.3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes -
Replying to @NeilTStacey
Alastair McAlpine, MD Retweeted Health Nerd
Not really: all benefit rests with essentially 2 studies: Elgazzar and Niaee. One of which is fraud and the other is dodgy. Dr Hill has responded to me that he’s already re-running his meta-analysis. So… very supported.https://twitter.com/gidmk/status/1415906647185125377?s=21 …
Alastair McAlpine, MD added,
Health NerdVerified account @GidMKReplying to @AlastairMcA30 @pash22 @DrAndrewHillYep. It's also worth noting that once you exclude Elgazzar, any potential benefit entirely rests on another very high-risk study Niaee et al, which has some extremely worrying aspects H/T@K_Sheldrick pic.twitter.com/nu7qwQh3wl2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes -
Replying to @AlastairMcA30 @NeilTStacey
Also worth noting that the Hill meta-analysis didn't entirely exclude Elgazzar - the leave-one-out approach excluded either of the estimates (mild/severe) from the paper, but not the entire studypic.twitter.com/aI3LPHnKBW
1 reply 2 retweets 9 likes -
Here's what I get when I run the standard inverse variance random-effects model in Stata 15 using the metan command. Left including, right excluding Elgazzarpic.twitter.com/mWKmIgI1Z5
3 replies 4 retweets 10 likes -
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Replying to @GidMK @NeilTStacey
Fancy that… it’s like, when you exclude the dodgy trials, there doesn’t seem to be much benefit…
3 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
Pretty much. Without Elgazzar, the mortality benefit is marginal at best, and rests entirely on Niaee. If you include the new study (Zoni) that came out last week, even with Niaee there's no benefit
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