I should also add - it probably *was* exponential, especially at the start. That's usually how these things go. I'm talking about the situation *now*
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The only official source of Reff I can find is the Fed weekly Common Operating Picture but it has weird data. Eg. On July 2 Reff of 0.81 (0.41 - 1.48) but with 50% chance Reff > 1. On July 9 Reff data not updated but chance Reff > 1 downgraded to 25-49%https://www.health.gov.au/resources/collections/coronavirus-covid-19-common-operating-picture …
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Reff is very uncertain when you have small numbers. If I simulate the same figures, it bounces around like crazy (my model is not as good as theirs)
7:03 PM - 14 Jul 2021
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