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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 7

    An interesting anniversary is that of all the modelling studies that came out around this time last year suggesting that COVID-19 would stop spreading at 15-30% immunity Turns out they were definitely wrong!pic.twitter.com/ZTcRTC3a0P

    7:06 PM - 7 Jul 2021
    • 32 Retweets
    • 132 Likes
    • MeerkatinNZ Catlover CovidOff Bot 🤖 Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität Cleber Tumoli Jon Huang, MPH, PhD | BLM | 🙏🏽 nora james Liz "The Mask Goes Over Your Nose AND Mouth" Ditz Marc Läderach
    8 replies 32 retweets 132 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 7

        Even without more infectious variants, these predictions have turned out to be entirely off, which is always a possibility when you are relying on models with numerous assumptions

        2 replies 4 retweets 43 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 7

        I wonder if all of the people who said that there'd be herd immunity in a month or two this time last year will reflect on their predictions and acknowledge how incorrect they were in hindsight?

        9 replies 17 retweets 106 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Rafael‏ @raf25b12 Jul 7
        Replying to @GidMK

        Last year we didn't have delta variant, so they were not "wrong", they just coudn't predict delta lol

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2.  🇬🇧 CAPTAIN HINDSIGHT‏ @Brexit011 Jul 7
        Replying to @GidMK

        No they didn't. Never heard that once. Why do people spread total..... Grow up and sort yourself out.

        3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 7
        Replying to @Brexit011

        There are many examples out there. Some from June/July 2020:pic.twitter.com/flrF1bPriQ

        0 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Michele Capobianco‏ @Capobianco2005C Jul 7
        Replying to @GidMK

        Only those #modelling studies focusing on the "mean values" and forgetting the role of "extremes" and "extreme events" in prolounging and extending the spreading...🤔

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. nora james‏ @norajam73574716 Jul 8
        Replying to @GidMK

        😂😂😂❤️

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Martin Thornber‏ @MartinThornber Jul 8
        Replying to @GidMK

        Can you provide any examples of modelling the epidemic that were close to reality with good confidence? Some of these models that produced these % numbers were likely useful to highlight how sensitive spread is with respect to how well connected people within populations are.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Martin Thornber‏ @MartinThornber Jul 8
        Replying to @MartinThornber @GidMK

        For me all modelling of this epidemic has been like the early days of weather forecasting - the model outputs are wildly sensitive to many variables (chaotic) - and hence should be used to guide policy rather than predict it with any absolute certainty.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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