Even without more infectious variants, these predictions have turned out to be entirely off, which is always a possibility when you are relying on models with numerous assumptions
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I wonder if all of the people who said that there'd be herd immunity in a month or two this time last year will reflect on their predictions and acknowledge how incorrect they were in hindsight?
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Last year we didn't have delta variant, so they were not "wrong", they just coudn't predict delta lol
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No they didn't. Never heard that once. Why do people spread total..... Grow up and sort yourself out.
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There are many examples out there. Some from June/July 2020:pic.twitter.com/flrF1bPriQ
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Only those
#modelling studies focusing on the "mean values" and forgetting the role of "extremes" and "extreme events" in prolounging and extending the spreading...
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Can you provide any examples of modelling the epidemic that were close to reality with good confidence? Some of these models that produced these % numbers were likely useful to highlight how sensitive spread is with respect to how well connected people within populations are.
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For me all modelling of this epidemic has been like the early days of weather forecasting - the model outputs are wildly sensitive to many variables (chaotic) - and hence should be used to guide policy rather than predict it with any absolute certainty.
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