Excellent piece, and indeed a simple fact - the end result of open society without vaccination in kids is that all kids will catch COVID-19https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1411774802013138947 …
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As I understand it, vaccine trials for 5-12 year olds are underway now. Will that be enough (assuming high coverage in all the eligible demographics)? Or will the virus be able to continue to circulate in the 0-4s?
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With a high likelihood of being maimed.
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Do you know of any population-wide estimates for % of severe/hospitalisation and death for those unvaccinated? Ideally for Delta as I understand that shifted the %s. I’m pondering adding it to my vaccination datavizes (datavizi?).
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Your math is way off, Gid. No disease approaches 100% infection. Once herd immunity is reached -- even if from natural infection -- it tails off, reaching only the overshoot level based on prevalence when herd immunity was hit. Go back and try all this again.
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Thought about this a bit more. Influenza took 2-3 years to reach everyone back in 1918. Given our increased mobility and interaction nowadays I’d wonder if we will reach this vast majority point significantly quicker?
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, the risk of catching COVID-19 at least once for an unvaccinated person