12/n On the other side, the paper uses a vaccine adverse event reporting system to estimate the number of deaths 'caused' by the vaccine This is absolute gibberish and a basic misunderstanding of epidemiologypic.twitter.com/XsqT5JBBNY
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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12/n On the other side, the paper uses a vaccine adverse event reporting system to estimate the number of deaths 'caused' by the vaccine This is absolute gibberish and a basic misunderstanding of epidemiologypic.twitter.com/XsqT5JBBNY
13/n Vaccine event reporting systems are geared to identifying potential signals for alarm, and so usually anyone can report any event THAT HAPPENS AFTER VACCINATION to them
14/n In other words, these are events FOLLOWING vaccination, not events CAUSED BY vaccination The website of the system even says this ~explicitly~pic.twitter.com/reRJm0N2JN
15/n So while the Israeli study was an attempt to causally link vaccination with outcomes, the Dutch registry explicitly does not do this The deaths in this system may have nothing to do with the immunizations at all
1/n This is misleading on your part. One can establish a baseline of post-vaccination events for all causes by looking at other vaccines. The underlying probability of something happening following vaccination is equal regardless of vaccine (i.e., get in a car accident, etc.)
All-cause mortality is decreased by a fair bit following COVID-19 vaccination, although this is probably due to biases in who gets immunised first rather than a protective effect against car accidents and the like
I know that. What I'm disputing is the pooh-pooing of the reports of death following vaccination. If you're a person with risk factors you're gonna look at it, look at your risk if you catch Covid, think it sucks, and take the vaccine without hesitation. That's not the point.
Happy to clarify that I'm not pooh-pooing anything, but these reports are by definition not causal links and thus it is inappropriate and trivially wrong to use them as such
Okay, time to bring out the graph again. Look at the numbers of Flu vs. Covid. If there was no link between vaccination and deaths in the system, you'd expect (as of Apr per the graph) no more than ~100 deaths in the system following Covid vaccines. It's over 2,500.pic.twitter.com/eMg8fMJU39
Nope, totally off-base. There are many influences on how and why people make reports - how many news articles are published each year about the influenza vaccine vs Covid-19 jabs?
It's just a useless comparison once you understand how these systems actually work
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