7/n But here's the thing - this trial was only 6 weeks long. Fewer than 3% of the total population got COVID-19 in that time, compared to at least 30% of the entire of Israel over the last 12 months
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8/n This means that the NNTV from this study is INHERENTLY MISLEADING unless you assume that vaccines will stop working entirely after the 6-week period (obviously false)
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9/n If you extrapolate this efficacy out linearly, and assume that the RELATIVE risk of death after vaccination remains similar over time, at 52 weeks you'd get an NNTV of 1/((0.00006/6)*52) = 1 per 1,960
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10/n If you assume that everyone who stays alive will get infected without a vaccine eventually - which is a fact - the ABSOLUTE risk difference approaches the RELATIVE risk difference, and so NNTV = 1/0.84 = 1.2 I.e. 1 life saved for every 1.2 vaccines given!
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11/n (Note - this, too is misleading. The NNTV as time trends towards infinity in this population is high because they were older and sicker than the total population. For example, the NNTV for 10-year-olds will be 1,000 times higher than that for 60-year-olds)
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12/n On the other side, the paper uses a vaccine adverse event reporting system to estimate the number of deaths 'caused' by the vaccine This is absolute gibberish and a basic misunderstanding of epidemiologypic.twitter.com/XsqT5JBBNY
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13/n Vaccine event reporting systems are geared to identifying potential signals for alarm, and so usually anyone can report any event THAT HAPPENS AFTER VACCINATION to them
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14/n In other words, these are events FOLLOWING vaccination, not events CAUSED BY vaccination The website of the system even says this ~explicitly~pic.twitter.com/reRJm0N2JN
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15/n So while the Israeli study was an attempt to causally link vaccination with outcomes, the Dutch registry explicitly does not do this The deaths in this system may have nothing to do with the immunizations at all
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Replying to @GidMK
1/n This is misleading on your part. One can establish a baseline of post-vaccination events for all causes by looking at other vaccines. The underlying probability of something happening following vaccination is equal regardless of vaccine (i.e., get in a car accident, etc.)
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All-cause mortality is decreased by a fair bit following COVID-19 vaccination, although this is probably due to biases in who gets immunised first rather than a protective effect against car accidents and the like
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