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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      5/n The first obvious issue here is in the NNTV It is not a great statistic, but here it is used in a WILDLY misleading waypic.twitter.com/RD4Js8byZ0

      1 reply 14 retweets 216 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      6/n NNTV is easily calculated - you just divide 1 by the absolute risk difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. In the Israeli study, the risk of death was 0.006% higher in unvaccinated people, therefore the NNTV was 1/0.00006 = 16,667pic.twitter.com/OVwkvDdVA0

      2 replies 18 retweets 199 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      7/n But here's the thing - this trial was only 6 weeks long. Fewer than 3% of the total population got COVID-19 in that time, compared to at least 30% of the entire of Israel over the last 12 months

      5 replies 16 retweets 250 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      8/n This means that the NNTV from this study is INHERENTLY MISLEADING unless you assume that vaccines will stop working entirely after the 6-week period (obviously false)

      5 replies 17 retweets 326 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      9/n If you extrapolate this efficacy out linearly, and assume that the RELATIVE risk of death after vaccination remains similar over time, at 52 weeks you'd get an NNTV of 1/((0.00006/6)*52) = 1 per 1,960

      5 replies 12 retweets 194 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      10/n If you assume that everyone who stays alive will get infected without a vaccine eventually - which is a fact - the ABSOLUTE risk difference approaches the RELATIVE risk difference, and so NNTV = 1/0.84 = 1.2 I.e. 1 life saved for every 1.2 vaccines given!

      21 replies 15 retweets 231 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Hache  🏴‏ @Hache_Berlin Jun 28
      Replying to @GidMK

      No, it’s not a fact. There exists pre immunity and cross-immunity. Why are so many of you falling in the fallacy of assuming “everyone” will get infected as if natural immunity doesn’t exist? That is plainly false! https://idp.nature.com/authorize?response_type=cookie&client_id=grover&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-020-2598-9 … https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22036-z …

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Josephson‏ @Josephs42921408 Jun 28
      Replying to @Hache_Berlin @GidMK

      I stopped reading the thread about here. It's a childish simplification of the complexity in epidemiology and immunology to state that everyone is eventually going to have every transmittable disease without a vaccine.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    9. Rob‏ @MakingMoneyFast Jun 30
      Replying to @Josephs42921408 @eliabennis and

      True, but it's also fair to say that SARS-Cov-2 is highly transmissable, so a large percentage will likely get infected at some point. I think his critique of the paper makes perfect sense though. It's crap. So was the FDA not announcing the ARR from the trials. Time matters...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Hache  🏴‏ @Hache_Berlin Jul 1
      Replying to @MakingMoneyFast @Josephs42921408 and

      The paper is not crap. There might be points open for discussion, but calling it crap is simplistic. Health nerd is a pharma shill and will cherry pick all he can to discredit the article and perpetuate the narrative. Follow @waukema to learn more about the data they used.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 1
      Replying to @Hache_Berlin @MakingMoneyFast and

      Who do you think is paying me? Please be as specific as possible

      4:24 AM - 1 Jul 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Judy Butler, fan of Sunderland AFC
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Hache  🏴‏ @Hache_Berlin Jul 1
          Replying to @GidMK @MakingMoneyFast and

          Find my answer in the quoted tweet.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 1
          Replying to @Hache_Berlin @MakingMoneyFast and

          "Pharma shill" is a tedious insult, but if you're accusing me of being paid by some corporation presumably you have evidence that this is the case, or at least a specific company that is paying me that you can identify So who is it?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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