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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      2/n The paper is here. It is truly woeful, but worth reading just to see how easy it can be to make a plausible-sounding argument if you are very free with your methodologyhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/693/htm#B6-vaccines-09-00693 …

      3 replies 30 retweets 344 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      3/n The authors did two things - they calculated a Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV) from a propensity-matched cohort study done in Israel. They also calculated the number of deaths reported through the Dutch vaccine reporting systempic.twitter.com/NLHZ2UYNmh

      1 reply 16 retweets 222 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      4/n They then compared these two numbers, arguing that since the NNTV was almost equal to the number of deaths reported after vaccination in the Netherlands, vaccinations are not a good interventionpic.twitter.com/YYCJp7juep

      2 replies 16 retweets 214 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      5/n The first obvious issue here is in the NNTV It is not a great statistic, but here it is used in a WILDLY misleading waypic.twitter.com/RD4Js8byZ0

      1 reply 14 retweets 216 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      6/n NNTV is easily calculated - you just divide 1 by the absolute risk difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. In the Israeli study, the risk of death was 0.006% higher in unvaccinated people, therefore the NNTV was 1/0.00006 = 16,667pic.twitter.com/OVwkvDdVA0

      2 replies 18 retweets 199 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      7/n But here's the thing - this trial was only 6 weeks long. Fewer than 3% of the total population got COVID-19 in that time, compared to at least 30% of the entire of Israel over the last 12 months

      5 replies 16 retweets 250 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      8/n This means that the NNTV from this study is INHERENTLY MISLEADING unless you assume that vaccines will stop working entirely after the 6-week period (obviously false)

      5 replies 17 retweets 326 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      9/n If you extrapolate this efficacy out linearly, and assume that the RELATIVE risk of death after vaccination remains similar over time, at 52 weeks you'd get an NNTV of 1/((0.00006/6)*52) = 1 per 1,960

      5 replies 12 retweets 194 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      10/n If you assume that everyone who stays alive will get infected without a vaccine eventually - which is a fact - the ABSOLUTE risk difference approaches the RELATIVE risk difference, and so NNTV = 1/0.84 = 1.2 I.e. 1 life saved for every 1.2 vaccines given!

      21 replies 15 retweets 231 likes
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    10. Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität‏ @MathematikerRuR Jun 28
      Replying to @GidMK

      This particular number 1.2 is impossible, isn't it? It seems to me that inherently this calculation assumes that everyone who gets infected will die - which obviously isn't true.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 28
      Replying to @MathematikerRuR

      Yes I corrected further down the thread - mixed up the deaths and cases in my calculation!

      12:54 AM - 28 Jun 2021
      • 5 Likes
      • MisterL קלמן InI4🌍 Spread Ideas Not Viruses. Fully vaccinated. Christopher Voß Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität‏ @MathematikerRuR Jun 28
          Replying to @GidMK

          Ah, thanks :-)

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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