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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      5/n The first obvious issue here is in the NNTV It is not a great statistic, but here it is used in a WILDLY misleading waypic.twitter.com/RD4Js8byZ0

      1 reply 14 retweets 216 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      6/n NNTV is easily calculated - you just divide 1 by the absolute risk difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. In the Israeli study, the risk of death was 0.006% higher in unvaccinated people, therefore the NNTV was 1/0.00006 = 16,667pic.twitter.com/OVwkvDdVA0

      2 replies 18 retweets 199 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      7/n But here's the thing - this trial was only 6 weeks long. Fewer than 3% of the total population got COVID-19 in that time, compared to at least 30% of the entire of Israel over the last 12 months

      5 replies 16 retweets 250 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      8/n This means that the NNTV from this study is INHERENTLY MISLEADING unless you assume that vaccines will stop working entirely after the 6-week period (obviously false)

      5 replies 17 retweets 326 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      9/n If you extrapolate this efficacy out linearly, and assume that the RELATIVE risk of death after vaccination remains similar over time, at 52 weeks you'd get an NNTV of 1/((0.00006/6)*52) = 1 per 1,960

      5 replies 12 retweets 194 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      10/n If you assume that everyone who stays alive will get infected without a vaccine eventually - which is a fact - the ABSOLUTE risk difference approaches the RELATIVE risk difference, and so NNTV = 1/0.84 = 1.2 I.e. 1 life saved for every 1.2 vaccines given!

      21 replies 15 retweets 231 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      11/n (Note - this, too is misleading. The NNTV as time trends towards infinity in this population is high because they were older and sicker than the total population. For example, the NNTV for 10-year-olds will be 1,000 times higher than that for 60-year-olds)

      1 reply 15 retweets 197 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      12/n On the other side, the paper uses a vaccine adverse event reporting system to estimate the number of deaths 'caused' by the vaccine This is absolute gibberish and a basic misunderstanding of epidemiologypic.twitter.com/XsqT5JBBNY

      4 replies 18 retweets 263 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      13/n Vaccine event reporting systems are geared to identifying potential signals for alarm, and so usually anyone can report any event THAT HAPPENS AFTER VACCINATION to them

      5 replies 17 retweets 209 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      14/n In other words, these are events FOLLOWING vaccination, not events CAUSED BY vaccination The website of the system even says this ~explicitly~pic.twitter.com/reRJm0N2JN

      9 replies 20 retweets 284 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

      15/n So while the Israeli study was an attempt to causally link vaccination with outcomes, the Dutch registry explicitly does not do this The deaths in this system may have nothing to do with the immunizations at all

      4:30 PM - 27 Jun 2021
      • 11 Retweets
      • 218 Likes
      • Scott Myers mittro70 Tatjana Alexander Schwemmer Tyler (propagandist) Antonio Golfari fanatla (Saint's Fan account/cuenta de fan) Miliwoltx Rachel Enns🇮🇱🇨🇦
      8 replies 11 retweets 218 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

          16/n Using reporting systems like this is a common anti-vaccine trope. We KNOW that many of the events in the reporting system ARE NOT LINKED TO VACCINATION because we investigate them carefully

          10 replies 26 retweets 245 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

          17/n Because of this, we have two awful, useless numbers being compared to each other. The true rate of deaths CAUSED by vaccines is 100sx lower than this paper calculates, and the number of deaths PREVENTED is 100sx higher

          3 replies 21 retweets 244 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

          18/n Taking the highest death rate seen caused by a vaccine so far - Astrazeneca - we'd get around 1 death per 500,000 vaccinations Using an NNTV assuming a 30% population prevalence, we'd get 1 life saved per ~500 vaccinations

          4 replies 16 retweets 194 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

          19/n Now, neither of these metrics are necessarily useful in this way, and people will yell at me for doing this (rightly, it's a bit silly), but EVEN USING THIS FLAWED RUBRIC vaccines save 1,000x more lives than they cost

          2 replies 13 retweets 218 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

          20/n Anyway, this study is flawed in so many basic ways that it's pretty irretrievable. It should be retracted as soon as possible to avoid further damage

          15 replies 15 retweets 286 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

          21/n Another note, H/T to @ScottinVictoria - the reviewer comments are pretty astonishing to read. Not even a mention of why NNTV is worthless in this context, and no argument about the manifestly wrong use of adverse event reports https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/693/review_report …

          9 replies 8 retweets 177 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 27

          Health Nerd Retweeted  🕷️The wife scientific 🕷️

          22/n Also worth pointing out that two members of the editorial board of the journal have resigned so far because of this terrible studyhttps://twitter.com/ProfKatieEwer/status/1409125241142513670?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

           🕷️The wife scientific 🕷️ @ProfKatieEwer
          I have resigned from the Editorial Board of @Vaccines_MDPI following the publication of this article. It is grossly negligent and I can't believe it passed peer-review. I hope it will be retracted. @MDPIOpenAccess @ratripp #AcademicTwitter https://twitter.com/pjvanerp/status/1408707779620114432 …
          Show this thread
          4 replies 44 retweets 278 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 28

          Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

          23/n also as a couple of people have pointed out, this tweet is incorrect. I mixed up the ARR of disease prevention with death, in actuality the ARR would approach the death rate in the population x 0.84 - in most places this would be about 1 per 100/200https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1409293104063029252?s=19 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
          10/n If you assume that everyone who stays alive will get infected without a vaccine eventually - which is a fact - the ABSOLUTE risk difference approaches the RELATIVE risk difference, and so NNTV = 1/0.84 = 1.2 I.e. 1 life saved for every 1.2 vaccines given!
          Show this thread
          8 replies 4 retweets 111 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 28

          24/n Oh, and because it always comes up in these discussions, I've never been paid a cent by any pharmaceutical company, all of my funding is through the Australian state and federal governments, the only additional income I get is from writing locked posts on Medium

          3 replies 3 retweets 61 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 28

          25/n There is now an expression of concern published by the journal about the paperhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/705 …

          3 replies 5 retweets 59 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 28

          26/n An interesting point about this paper is that it's actually a perfect example of how peer-review can fail. The people who reviewed the article assumed that the stats and methodology were reasonable, and based on that assumption recommended that it be published

          3 replies 5 retweets 72 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 28

          27/n This is a prime example of what @jamesheathers and I wrote about recently - the study got through peer review, may be retracted, but the damage has already very much been donehttps://www.statnews.com/2021/06/08/scientific-publishing-new-weapon-for-the-next-crisis-the-rapid-correction/ …

          11 replies 8 retweets 95 likes
          Show this thread
        14. End of conversation

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