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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

      Let's think this through - @NSWHealth reports 1.9m vaccine doses, which based on previous figures is probably ~1.5m first and .4m second doses With a population of 8.2m, that's about 20% of the population vaccinated at least once

      2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

      Let's assume that all of this was Astrazeneca, with an estimated vaccine efficacy (protection against infection) of somewhere around 70%, and think about some different scenarios of the reproductive number (R)

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

      With a standard R0 of 2.6 for COVID-19, and 20% vaccinated with AZ, we'd expect that the virus would infect about 14% fewer people on average, so our effective reproductive number (Rt) goes down to 2.2

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

      Now that doesn't sound like all that much, perhaps, but it is similar to the level of reduction that previous studies have seen from other interventions against COVID-19 such as school closures and the like https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7#Sec2 …pic.twitter.com/gYonoD61jD

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

      If our R0 started at 4 (let's say a very transmissible variant) we might expect to see a reduction to about 3.4 from this level of vaccination alone

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

      This sort of reduction might be the difference between, say, masks stopping the outbreak entirely and needing to implement further measures

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

      And what if we had 40% vaccinated? Or 50%? We might not need anything other than the excellent contact tracing system we already have to keep a lid on this sort of outbreak!

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

      This has been your daily thread of why you should all go and get your vaccines, specific to NSW Australia but also for everyone else because the same thing applies no matter where you live

      2 replies 5 retweets 38 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

      Also, worth noting that at a vaccination rate of 70%, even if you assume Astrazeneca is only 70% effective, you're looking at about a 50% reduction in R0 which means that contact tracing will probably be enough to completely prevent any outbreaks

      5 replies 5 retweets 32 likes
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    10. Dan Babs‏ @DanDbab Jun 20
      Replying to @GidMK

      Isn’t that a big assumption? How effective is AZ after a single dose against Delta strain? I thought data suggests not very, and it’s suspected that’s the whole issue with the UK - widespread single dose AZ rollout to fight Alpha not so good against Delta…

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20
      Replying to @DanDbab

      Well, in this context contact tracing has generally been enough to control minor outbreaks without significant reimposition of restrictions with the 'wild' strain. Even if AZ is only 50% against Delta, it would still probably reduce Rt enough to stop spread

      8:21 PM - 20 Jun 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • John B Damjan Vlastelica 💉💉😷📉📊🎨🖌️🇦🇺🇷🇸🇪🇺🌍🚴 Dan Babs
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Dan Babs‏ @DanDbab Jun 20
          Replying to @GidMK

          I'm not sure it's even looking 50% though is it? (Acknowledging the uncertainty still present of course): https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346 …pic.twitter.com/YjuaoykYL8

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Dan Babs‏ @DanDbab Jun 20
          Replying to @DanDbab @GidMK

          Not to suggest anything about vaccine choice (same issue with Pfizer - UK data suggests single doses of both not that effective against Delta I think). Just mean re: vaccines having an effect on the current NSW outbreak. Still I mean I hope so obviously.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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