A useful point to show why vaccines are so important - even though this is WELL below herd immunity rates, the vaccines already done so far in NSW have probably slowed down this outbreak significantlyhttps://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/1406779581504180234 …
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Oh, also worth noting this is with totally naïve estimates of the spread of the disease. If we've vaccinated the people most likely to spread COVID-19 (which we may have to some extent) then the Rt could be a fair bit lower
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What's the latest single-dose effectiveness figure for both of our current vaccines? I see so many different figures.
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Isn’t that a big assumption? How effective is AZ after a single dose against Delta strain? I thought data suggests not very, and it’s suspected that’s the whole issue with the UK - widespread single dose AZ rollout to fight Alpha not so good against Delta…
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Eg I can't share them but
@andrew_croxford has a couple of threads where I interpret that as what he's suggesting:pic.twitter.com/5hQ8VkydL4
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Which is why I've never bought the claim by various "experts" that it will become endemic. As more get vaccinated the easier it will be to stop outbreaks completely without disrupting people's lives that much.
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Not with Delta which is currently estimated to have an R0 of 5-6. With a reduktion of 50% it is about the same level as the wild type without vaccination.
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Which we successfully contained with contact tracing and no masks or lockdowns. That's exactly the point.
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