A useful point to show why vaccines are so important - even though this is WELL below herd immunity rates, the vaccines already done so far in NSW have probably slowed down this outbreak significantlyhttps://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/1406779581504180234 …
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Also, worth noting that at a vaccination rate of 70%, even if you assume Astrazeneca is only 70% effective, you're looking at about a 50% reduction in R0 which means that contact tracing will probably be enough to completely prevent any outbreaks
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Oh, also worth noting this is with totally naïve estimates of the spread of the disease. If we've vaccinated the people most likely to spread COVID-19 (which we may have to some extent) then the Rt could be a fair bit lower
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