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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

    Health Nerd Retweeted NSW Health

    A useful point to show why vaccines are so important - even though this is WELL below herd immunity rates, the vaccines already done so far in NSW have probably slowed down this outbreak significantlyhttps://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/1406779581504180234 …

    Health Nerd added,

    NSW HealthVerified account @NSWHealth
    The total number of vaccines administered in NSW is now 1,897,131 with 676,080 doses administered by NSW Health to 8pm last night and 1,221,051 administered by the GP network and other providers to 11.59pm on Saturday 19 June.
    Show this thread
    7:11 PM - 20 Jun 2021
    • 27 Retweets
    • 93 Likes
    • LouieLou Simon 💉 Patrick Hamilton Paul Hurdle Lee Jale David #GetADamnShot 😷 Bloomberg 🤨🖖🛎 Just Me @throwsshadows ‏pix
    4 replies 27 retweets 93 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

        Let's think this through - @NSWHealth reports 1.9m vaccine doses, which based on previous figures is probably ~1.5m first and .4m second doses With a population of 8.2m, that's about 20% of the population vaccinated at least once

        2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

        Let's assume that all of this was Astrazeneca, with an estimated vaccine efficacy (protection against infection) of somewhere around 70%, and think about some different scenarios of the reproductive number (R)

        2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

        With a standard R0 of 2.6 for COVID-19, and 20% vaccinated with AZ, we'd expect that the virus would infect about 14% fewer people on average, so our effective reproductive number (Rt) goes down to 2.2

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

        Now that doesn't sound like all that much, perhaps, but it is similar to the level of reduction that previous studies have seen from other interventions against COVID-19 such as school closures and the like https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7#Sec2 …pic.twitter.com/gYonoD61jD

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

        If our R0 started at 4 (let's say a very transmissible variant) we might expect to see a reduction to about 3.4 from this level of vaccination alone

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

        This sort of reduction might be the difference between, say, masks stopping the outbreak entirely and needing to implement further measures

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

        And what if we had 40% vaccinated? Or 50%? We might not need anything other than the excellent contact tracing system we already have to keep a lid on this sort of outbreak!

        1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

        This has been your daily thread of why you should all go and get your vaccines, specific to NSW Australia but also for everyone else because the same thing applies no matter where you live

        2 replies 5 retweets 38 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

        Also, worth noting that at a vaccination rate of 70%, even if you assume Astrazeneca is only 70% effective, you're looking at about a 50% reduction in R0 which means that contact tracing will probably be enough to completely prevent any outbreaks

        5 replies 5 retweets 32 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 20

        Oh, also worth noting this is with totally naïve estimates of the spread of the disease. If we've vaccinated the people most likely to spread COVID-19 (which we may have to some extent) then the Rt could be a fair bit lower

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        Show this thread
      12. End of conversation

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