First, she claims that there was an increase of 24% child suicides in california (by rate it's 24-27%) in 2020. She points to data for 2019, 2018, 2017 to show that this is an anomaly. /2pic.twitter.com/K1gpSbcSYf
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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First, she claims that there was an increase of 24% child suicides in california (by rate it's 24-27%) in 2020. She points to data for 2019, 2018, 2017 to show that this is an anomaly. /2pic.twitter.com/K1gpSbcSYf
In fact, this is true. However, some additional context (or, had she consulted a suicidologist) sort of undermine this argument. The suicide rate has increased by 24% or more 4 times prior to 2020 in the past 20 years, and does so with a regular frequency. excel data, CDC /3pic.twitter.com/K7dtQe8oPE
Next, she makes the point that the CDC just showed a 50% increase among (mainly) girls during the pandemic. Significant editing is required. /4pic.twitter.com/uigDCgDblk
The CDC data has issues (discussed before, but it's data & it DOES show increase in distress in girls for sure. But only girls. not "mainly" girls. For boys, there was no difference. And it was not "during the pandemic." /5
For the first portion of the pandemic, rates of ER presentations were lower for both girls and boys, and country wide, almost every school was closed. /6pic.twitter.com/c32l50zvXg
For the 2nd portion, there was a split in ER presentations b/w girls & boys, with boys returning to baseline & girls up by about 10%. This is during the end of school yr, the summer, and new school year, where school attendance really depended on state rules &conditions. /7pic.twitter.com/T8ZtQI77da
Certainly in Dr. Gandhi's jurisdiction, mostly closed. But across the US, there was a lot of variance on whether or not kids attended schools during this portion of the year. In my jurisdiction, BC Canada, schools have been open since September. Our SA/SI pattern was similar. /8
In the new year (2021+), we see this huge takeoff of girls and ER presentations, but this is during weeks 8-18, where almost half of schools are open across the United states. Remember, this is national data, not California data. And for whatever reason, only girls, not boys. /9pic.twitter.com/aIfkcnY4vL
So for this spike to be related to school closures, it has to explain: a) why only girls and not boys (unless I missed the memo that boys were totally off the hook and didn't have to go) b) why the rates are increasing the more that schools are opening /10
I think it should be concerning to Dr. Gandhi, who has maintained quite the ... sure ideological position... if adding context to the data she provides completely changes the weight of it as evidence of school closures being to blame. /11
From memory, the increase in suicide associated with going back to school was also seen in Japanese data for girls?
I believe it was seen as some challenges returning to school with exams, yes.
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