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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Boris Barbour‏ @BorisBarbour Jun 14
      Replying to @GidMK @zeynep @CovidSerology

      Any sign that infecteds in India have skewed more to older people than in previous waves?

      3 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep Jun 14
      Replying to @BorisBarbour @GidMK @CovidSerology

      Some places look ~80+% might have been infected. If that’s the case the age pyramid is pretty much it. If % infected is much lower than the severity & death rate is dramatically worse here, again because of that age pyramid. Alternatively excess death rates are *really* wrong.

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 14
      Replying to @zeynep @BorisBarbour @CovidSerology

      I would argue that, if the estimates of infection rates are wrong, it's plausible that the age breakdown of infections skews to higher ages as well. Not necessarily likely, and I'm sure that severity etc play a role, but it might partially explain the high death rates

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep Jun 14
      Replying to @GidMK @BorisBarbour @CovidSerology

      Right, but do a back-of-envelope calc for higher severity that gets you 2000 deaths per million in a month for this. (Or just model it with varying assumptions for infected rates). The severity numbers are then way above the already depressing England and Scotland estimates.pic.twitter.com/F5xkOy9dIQ

      1 reply 2 retweets 3 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep Jun 14
      Replying to @zeynep @GidMK and

      As I said I don’t know which one to disbelieve. I’m obviously rooting for “the excess death rates are off by a huge factor”, but that’s not looking that likely either from what I learned.

      2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 14
      Replying to @zeynep @BorisBarbour @CovidSerology

      I don't think the excess deaths are "off" per se although it is certainly possible that only a portion of them are directly caused by COVID-19!

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep Jun 14
      Replying to @GidMK @BorisBarbour @CovidSerology

      But look at the data from last four years. Few other states also look *just like this*. It’s not really looking like a accumulating malnutrition or otherwise delayed healthcare etc., no? Hard to imagine what else could be that sudden and that high a contributor that fast.pic.twitter.com/PzWDeMGYEq

      2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 14
      Replying to @zeynep @BorisBarbour @CovidSerology

      Oh no, it's definitely caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, no question, but it might be partially due to collapse of the healthcare system exacerbating other issues. I'm no expert in India, but I believe it is a fairly disadvantaged area?

      3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep Jun 14
      Replying to @GidMK @BorisBarbour @CovidSerology

      Sure but it was just as disadvantaged this March. And definitely, healthcare system collapse will play a role but that brings us back to that age pyramid. That many people dying in a month due to lack of healthcare would give us the raw death rate for Delta and it’s horrific. +

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep Jun 14
      Replying to @zeynep @GidMK and

      Unless you assume really really widespread infection rates, which is horrific in other ways and also brings us back to the age pyramid since almost everyone would need to be infected. Don’t know which is the answer but it’s really worrying unless excess deaths are misreported.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 14
      Replying to @zeynep @BorisBarbour @CovidSerology

      It is really worrying no matter which reason is ultimately the cause, with that I agree wholeheartedly

      3:16 PM - 14 Jun 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • Karl build back better Bunday 🌊 Boris Barbour E R I K A 💉🎉 zeynep tufekci
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 14
          Replying to @GidMK @zeynep and

          Even an explanation that includes excess deaths being wildly off is worrying, because that calls into question the entire death recording system and how reliable any of the numbers for the region are at all

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep Jun 14
          Replying to @GidMK @BorisBarbour @CovidSerology

          Yeah. That is true, but I feel like that’s the least worst option, that they’re actually lower. That said, I think, well, fear, they’re actually reliable. Plus similarish states but with slightly higher median age are reporting slightly higher rates of death—so consistent. Ugh.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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