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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep Jun 12

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Rukmini S

      I don't know how to wrap my head around this. As @covidserology puts it, it would mean ~2000 deaths per million in a rural state with a median age of 23, in JUST TWO MONTHS. About 170,000 excess deaths, over two months. Even if not all from COVID, this is a catastrophic picture.https://twitter.com/Rukmini/status/1403563967172153344 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Rukmini SVerified account @Rukmini
      Officially, Madhya Pradesh reported just 4,461 Covid deaths between January 1 and May 31 2021. The excess deaths seen in the same period are over 42 times the reported Covid death toll, though the entire excess death toll is not attributable to Covid. pic.twitter.com/Mmgj7LYya6
      Show this thread
      21 replies 217 retweets 522 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 14
      Replying to @zeynep @CovidSerology

      An important point is that population pyramids can be misleading - the key is the age breakdown of the people who have been infected

      1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
    3. Boris Barbour‏ @BorisBarbour Jun 14
      Replying to @GidMK @zeynep @CovidSerology

      Any sign that infecteds in India have skewed more to older people than in previous waves?

      3 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep Jun 14
      Replying to @BorisBarbour @GidMK @CovidSerology

      Some places look ~80+% might have been infected. If that’s the case the age pyramid is pretty much it. If % infected is much lower than the severity & death rate is dramatically worse here, again because of that age pyramid. Alternatively excess death rates are *really* wrong.

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 14
      Replying to @zeynep @BorisBarbour @CovidSerology

      I would argue that, if the estimates of infection rates are wrong, it's plausible that the age breakdown of infections skews to higher ages as well. Not necessarily likely, and I'm sure that severity etc play a role, but it might partially explain the high death rates

      2:49 PM - 14 Jun 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 3 Likes
      • Tak Karl build back better Bunday 🌊 Dr. Lander Foquet Mona van der Smitte #stayathome 😷 💉 #staysafe
      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep Jun 14
          Replying to @GidMK @BorisBarbour @CovidSerology

          Right, but do a back-of-envelope calc for higher severity that gets you 2000 deaths per million in a month for this. (Or just model it with varying assumptions for infected rates). The severity numbers are then way above the already depressing England and Scotland estimates.pic.twitter.com/F5xkOy9dIQ

          1 reply 2 retweets 3 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep Jun 14
          Replying to @zeynep @GidMK and

          As I said I don’t know which one to disbelieve. I’m obviously rooting for “the excess death rates are off by a huge factor”, but that’s not looking that likely either from what I learned.

          2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. COVID Impact‏ @CovidSerology Jun 14
          Replying to @GidMK @zeynep @BorisBarbour

          You've worked a lot on IFRs for COVID. What's the CFR/IFR for untreated COVID and how can that influence mortality numbers in any given situation?

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 14
          Replying to @CovidSerology @zeynep @BorisBarbour

          Challenge is it's very uncertain - most of the evidence on IFR is from high-income countries where treatment is basically a given. We'd assume it's higher but how much higher...? Hard to say

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies

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