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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis Jun 9
      Replying to @msabouri @youyanggu

      Yes, my argument is their inputs are incorrect I can't add five numbers in sequence. But I know which inputs are important. What's what being a social scientist is all about

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis Jun 9
      Replying to @greg_travis @msabouri @youyanggu

      I am curious, though. Is this what you would expect of a "Math Titan?"pic.twitter.com/uh7TFRilQD

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Mazda Sabouri‏ @msabouri Jun 9
      Replying to @greg_travis @youyanggu

      In early 2020 the WHO told us that Covid wasn't airborne. On the basis of that, math minds assumed that suppression would be achieved before even 5% of us were infected.pic.twitter.com/yR3j8TOjJS

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis Jun 9
      Replying to @msabouri @youyanggu

      Gregory Travis Retweeted Gregory Travis

      Smart people like me, because we studied History instead of getting a Nobel Prize, were saying this in early 2020https://twitter.com/greg_travis/status/1247576425076588546 …

      Gregory Travis added,

      Gregory Travis @greg_travis
      Replying to @PezeshkiCharles @RallyOn
      You are correct that viral load seems to be a huge factor in if and how badly one gets sick. I believe the main transmission vector is not contact but airborne and most people get sick from breathing in air others breath out. Most people get a low viral load because of that.
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Mazda Sabouri‏ @msabouri Jun 9
      Replying to @greg_travis @youyanggu

      I figured it out in early 2020 too. The problem is those that were also promoting high IFRs were indirectly promoting the narrative that Covid wasn't airborne. High IFRs meant low IRs, something the "it's not really airborne" crowd harped on.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis Jun 9
      Replying to @msabouri @youyanggu

      That's simply not true. The ICL/Ferguson model had a mean IFR of 0.9% on March 16th, 2020 Which is EXACTLY what it is (for OECD) today https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-9-impact-of-npis-on-covid-19/ … Ferguson et. al have been shown over and over again now that we have a year behind us to have been remarkably accuratepic.twitter.com/YLl5Vy0Cs4

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Mazda Sabouri‏ @msabouri Jun 9
      Replying to @greg_travis @youyanggu

      At this point it takes a mountain of mental gymnastics to get to an IFR anywhere close to .9%. Rational people right now are somewhere between .3-.6% for America. Saying .9% means that only 70M Americans got infected. That is half the CDC's current lowest bound estimate.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. JM Pienaar‏ @PienaarJm Jun 9
      Replying to @msabouri @greg_travis @youyanggu

      JM Pienaar Retweeted JM Pienaar

      Using the "math titan's" numbers gets us to .9% IFR. I agree it's a bit high, but he won't budge from that 20% saturation level he anchored on since those Diamond Princess days.https://twitter.com/PienaarJm/status/1398246834548715525?s=20 …

      JM Pienaar added,

      JM Pienaar @PienaarJm
      So it infected 20% of Americans=66M. Killed 591K. IFR = 591K/66M = 0.9% Someone needs to tell Ioannidis @MLevitt_NP2013 falsified his paper and he needs to retract? https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1376467434857586689?s=20 … @GidMK @AtomsksSanakan https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1397383380690481155 …
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Mazda Sabouri‏ @msabouri Jun 9
      Replying to @PienaarJm @greg_travis @youyanggu

      You're citing Gid's work?pic.twitter.com/Y602eTwsGw

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis Jun 9
      Replying to @msabouri @PienaarJm @youyanggu

      @GidMK doesn't know I exist

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 9
      Replying to @greg_travis @msabouri and

      Happy to clarify that you do indeed appear to exist 🙂

      8:32 PM - 9 Jun 2021
      • 1 Like
      • john mcclean
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis Jun 10
          Replying to @GidMK @msabouri and

          "Appear"

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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