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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 4

    A lot of people who talk about lab leaks really need to understand the differentiation between "not disproven" and "likely"

    7:25 PM - 4 Jun 2021
    • 40 Retweets
    • 400 Likes
    • BHepp 💉🩹💉🩹💉🩹 𓆣 Lindy 🌊🌊🌊🌊 Douglas W. Harder Yiwei Wang, Ph.D. blaaaa Lili S. Haggard Finical Greedwashing
    17 replies 40 retweets 400 likes
      1. Pete's Ketamine and Koolaid Kommune‏ @petesscience Jun 4
        Replying to @GidMK

        "Well an accidental lab leak is feasible..." Did you hear that? He reckons it was man made deliberately released!!

        0 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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      1. James Cole‏ @jamesrcole Jun 4
        Replying to @GidMK

        That’s a loaded way of describing it. Why? Do you normally describe the different possibilities regarding the evidence for some claim as _only consisting of_ “not disproven” and “likely”?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Robert Merkel‏ @rgmerk Jun 4
        Replying to @GidMK

        Heh. Civilians and probabilistic reasoning don’t mix. I once read the court decision on Alberto Contador’s drug ban. I forget the exact details but a key piece of legal reasoning was that because two things were “unlikely” they were equally likely to have occurred…

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Keith Head‏ @ckhead Jun 4
        Replying to @GidMK

        So do you

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Tim‏ @alanaldajr Jun 4
        Replying to @GidMK

        I’m not a lab leaker but here’s my reasoning. Give that we don’t know, “not disproven” is a <1% chance over a period of time. While “likely” is >~20% over the same time period. Those %’s are negotiable here.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Lance Burkhart‏ @LanceBurkhart4 Jun 4
        Replying to @GidMK @DiseaseEcology

        Like the existence of aliens: “not disproven.”

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Iain Mulady‏ @IainMulady Jun 5
        Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM

        Are they the same people who couldn't understand "no evidence of human to human transmission"? If so we may have a problem

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      2. ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️‏Verified account @MackayIM Jun 5

        Yes. There is. There are scientists who have been saying this.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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