"Well an accidental lab leak is feasible..." Did you hear that? He reckons it was man made deliberately released!!
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That’s a loaded way of describing it. Why? Do you normally describe the different possibilities regarding the evidence for some claim as _only consisting of_ “not disproven” and “likely”?
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Heh. Civilians and probabilistic reasoning don’t mix. I once read the court decision on Alberto Contador’s drug ban. I forget the exact details but a key piece of legal reasoning was that because two things were “unlikely” they were equally likely to have occurred…
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So do you
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I’m not a lab leaker but here’s my reasoning. Give that we don’t know, “not disproven” is a <1% chance over a period of time. While “likely” is >~20% over the same time period. Those %’s are negotiable here.
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Like the existence of aliens: “not disproven.”
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Are they the same people who couldn't understand "no evidence of human to human transmission"? If so we may have a problem
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Yes. There is. There are scientists who have been saying this.
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