This was the list in NSW during the Northern Beaches outbreak on 3 Jan. Am I looking in the wrong place or dat? The list spans over weeks and yet it's nowhere near what we have now - 370 sites in Vic. I'm genuinely curious as to why. https://web.archive.org/web/20210103224032/https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/case-locations-and-alerts.aspx …
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Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras
Gotta think of it as an equation exposure sites/cases - this gives us the numerator but how many active cases of community transmission were there on Jan 3rd in NSW vs how many in Vic right now?
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Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras
Here is the press release on 3 Jan. They have numbers attributed to various clusters and it seems like they had way more cases than 60 and yet the exposure list is so many times smaller. I think the best is to get the exact numbers from somewhere. https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20210103_00.aspx …
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Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras
Ok, we need an actual figure here. NSW Health deletes locations after 14 days, so we need the current number of cases of local transmission on 3/01 for NSW compared to the number in Vic now
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Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras
Ok, I've actually found what's likely a large part of the discrepancy. Victoria provides a separate "location" for the same place at different times, whereas NSW Health just gives you one line on the spreadsheetpic.twitter.com/z3HTPiiiCC
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Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras
Interesting! We can do this. I will try to put them into the same format :)
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Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras
I had a spare moment, so I've done it! So, NSW 3/01 - 253 'exposures', 115 cases = 2.2 sites per case VIC - 369 'exposures', 69 cases = 5.3 sites per case Not sure that tells the whole story, but it is a more useful comparison!
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Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras
Thank you! :) I'm glad you agree that it's a more insightful way of looking into the stats and it gives more understanding into behaviour and movement. I couldn't find any data for primary contacts in NSW. That would be even more insightful. It'd tell how many contacts we have.
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Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras
No worries! The only issue with this breakdown I think is that Sydney had two massive superspreading events which accounted for about 1/2 of all of those cases, so it's plausible that this is the main difference between the two outbreaks
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Replying to @GidMK
Access to the occupations of people infected will be telling. Personally, up here in Melbourne's north, ppl like me escaped, my friends and family who work in precarious jobs, did not.
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Sure, but again that's not really different between Syd and Melb. Most of the outbreaks here have started with casual staff working in hotel quarantine, who mostly live in low-income areas
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