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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1.  🌍 Gaik Masis‏ @PoppySarafan Jun 2
      Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

      Is there any explanation as to why Vic gets so many times more exposure sites per each identified case on avr than in Syd? All these graphs say nothing about behaviour. It also seems crazy that we have thousands&thousands of primary contacts for just 60 cases. Why?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras

      Does it? What's the # of exposure sites per person in NSW vs VIC?

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3.  🌍 Gaik Masis‏ @PoppySarafan Jun 2
      Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

      This was the list in NSW during the Northern Beaches outbreak on 3 Jan. Am I looking in the wrong place or dat? The list spans over weeks and yet it's nowhere near what we have now - 370 sites in Vic. I'm genuinely curious as to why. https://web.archive.org/web/20210103224032/https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/case-locations-and-alerts.aspx …

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras

      Gotta think of it as an equation exposure sites/cases - this gives us the numerator but how many active cases of community transmission were there on Jan 3rd in NSW vs how many in Vic right now?

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5.  🌍 Gaik Masis‏ @PoppySarafan Jun 2
      Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

      Here is the press release on 3 Jan. They have numbers attributed to various clusters and it seems like they had way more cases than 60 and yet the exposure list is so many times smaller. I think the best is to get the exact numbers from somewhere. https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20210103_00.aspx …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras

      Ok, we need an actual figure here. NSW Health deletes locations after 14 days, so we need the current number of cases of local transmission on 3/01 for NSW compared to the number in Vic now

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

      Ok, I've actually found what's likely a large part of the discrepancy. Victoria provides a separate "location" for the same place at different times, whereas NSW Health just gives you one line on the spreadsheetpic.twitter.com/z3HTPiiiCC

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8.  🌍 Gaik Masis‏ @PoppySarafan Jun 2
      Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

      Interesting! We can do this. I will try to put them into the same format :)

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras

      I had a spare moment, so I've done it! So, NSW 3/01 - 253 'exposures', 115 cases = 2.2 sites per case VIC - 369 'exposures', 69 cases = 5.3 sites per case Not sure that tells the whole story, but it is a more useful comparison!

      3 replies 9 retweets 21 likes
    10.  🌍 Gaik Masis‏ @PoppySarafan Jun 2
      Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

      Thank you! :) I'm glad you agree that it's a more insightful way of looking into the stats and it gives more understanding into behaviour and movement. I couldn't find any data for primary contacts in NSW. That would be even more insightful. It'd tell how many contacts we have.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras

      No worries! The only issue with this breakdown I think is that Sydney had two massive superspreading events which accounted for about 1/2 of all of those cases, so it's plausible that this is the main difference between the two outbreaks

      8:36 PM - 2 Jun 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • Dr Krispy Oz 🇦🇺🏳️‍🌈🦠🤝😷🔬💉 we r dna 🌍 Gaik Masis
      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2.  🌍 Gaik Masis‏ @PoppySarafan Jun 2
          Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

          Can't really find anything reliable. Surely governments have that data but they don't publish it in their stats. And it's a pity. It's also a good knowledge from scientific perspective especially for understanding social interactions.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3.  🌍 Gaik Masis‏ @PoppySarafan Jun 2
          Replying to @PoppySarafan @GidMK @KosSamaras

          I think journalists could easily make enquiries on those numbers

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. hugs or brains‏ @Not_My_Monkey Jun 2
          Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

          Thanks both of you for respectful disagreement and further investigation - much appreciated

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Kos Samaras‏ @KosSamaras Jun 2
          Replying to @GidMK

          Access to the occupations of people infected will be telling. Personally, up here in Melbourne's north, ppl like me escaped, my friends and family who work in precarious jobs, did not.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
          Replying to @KosSamaras

          Sure, but again that's not really different between Syd and Melb. Most of the outbreaks here have started with casual staff working in hotel quarantine, who mostly live in low-income areas

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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