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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Kos Samaras‏ @KosSamaras Jun 2

      Sydney v Melbourne. Never exclude social disadvantage from any comparison. As I suspected. The differences are not just family structures (large families, small dwellings) across connected LGA corridors. Melbourne has this. Sydney does not. But differences are also about class 1/pic.twitter.com/DZNXeIacaM

      102 replies 368 retweets 990 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @KosSamaras

      I don't think this is particularly true. Part of the issue is that you're using LGA rather than a more granular measure - here's what those maps look like if you use SA2 (~10,000 person blocks) rather than LGA (~100,000 people)pic.twitter.com/CgEq94IR4G

      5 replies 3 retweets 47 likes
    3.  🌍 Gaik Masis‏ @PoppySarafan Jun 2
      Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

      Is there any explanation as to why Vic gets so many times more exposure sites per each identified case on avr than in Syd? All these graphs say nothing about behaviour. It also seems crazy that we have thousands&thousands of primary contacts for just 60 cases. Why?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras

      Does it? What's the # of exposure sites per person in NSW vs VIC?

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5.  🌍 Gaik Masis‏ @PoppySarafan Jun 2
      Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

      This was the list in NSW during the Northern Beaches outbreak on 3 Jan. Am I looking in the wrong place or dat? The list spans over weeks and yet it's nowhere near what we have now - 370 sites in Vic. I'm genuinely curious as to why. https://web.archive.org/web/20210103224032/https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/case-locations-and-alerts.aspx …

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras

      Gotta think of it as an equation exposure sites/cases - this gives us the numerator but how many active cases of community transmission were there on Jan 3rd in NSW vs how many in Vic right now?

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    7.  🌍 Gaik Masis‏ @PoppySarafan Jun 2
      Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

      Here is the press release on 3 Jan. They have numbers attributed to various clusters and it seems like they had way more cases than 60 and yet the exposure list is so many times smaller. I think the best is to get the exact numbers from somewhere. https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20210103_00.aspx …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @PoppySarafan @KosSamaras

      Ok, we need an actual figure here. NSW Health deletes locations after 14 days, so we need the current number of cases of local transmission on 3/01 for NSW compared to the number in Vic now

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

      Ok, I've actually found what's likely a large part of the discrepancy. Victoria provides a separate "location" for the same place at different times, whereas NSW Health just gives you one line on the spreadsheetpic.twitter.com/z3HTPiiiCC

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Kos Samaras‏ @KosSamaras Jun 2
      Replying to @GidMK

      btw, this is the last time I mapped out our outbreak from last year. You will see the pattern and what I am trying to communicate here.https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/kos.samaras8610/viz/CovidCasesAug6/Sheet1 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
      Replying to @KosSamaras

      No I'm still nonplussed. The geographic spread of disadvantage is quite similar in both places, so I'm not sure why that would make Victoria more prone to outbreaks of infectious disease

      8:34 PM - 2 Jun 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • we r dna MorrisonHasToGo
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jun 2
          Replying to @GidMK @KosSamaras

          It's definitely true that low-income areas are more likely to see outbreaks - this has been proven not just in Australia but internationally - but my point is that these areas exist in similar ways/geography in both Melbourne and Sydney, so they don't explain the disparity

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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