Tonight I will either cuddle my cat or metamorphose into a human cat hybrid with all of the strengths of both but none of the weaknesses But one of those is a touch more reasonable as a proposition
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With no priors isn't it reasonable?
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I'd say it is reasonable if you only know that there are two possibilities, with no clue whatsoever about the likelihood of either. And in any case, you should make the choice of equal probability consciously.
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That's why you can learn so much from gambling. If you can't assess the probability of each event correctly enough you will lose money quickly. It's all about assessing the odds better than the consensus view if you want to win.
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This is likely referring to Nate who was a successful poker player. I used to hold poker players in pretty high regard with thinking about things due to exactly what you've said, but this year changed my mind.
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I know this is a Nate Silver sub-tweet but it actually works better as a Nassim T=aleb sub-tweet.
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The Finns are pretty good with numbers I bet they're right in this case. http://www.quotehd.com/quotes/matti-nykanen-quote-the-chances-are-fifty-sixty …
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Are there aliens? Could be. Or couldn't. So I give it a 50% chance.
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My prior was at 40 %. After your tweet I'll give it 45.
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Tell me about. It seems impossible to tell him.
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