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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

    Bizarre how some people who are supposedly extremely good with numbers will be told that there are two possibilities and immediately assume that they are both roughly equally likely

    11:34 PM - 27 May 2021
    • 27 Retweets
    • 453 Likes
    • Filialleiter TheGoodestDoggo james_robinson A. Chase Mallia Arnar Snær Ágústsson Plérôme 🎯 JayMan Kalera Stratton Dr. Anthony Burnetti
    15 replies 27 retweets 453 likes
      1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

        Tonight I will either cuddle my cat or metamorphose into a human cat hybrid with all of the strengths of both but none of the weaknesses But one of those is a touch more reasonable as a proposition

        13 replies 7 retweets 147 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Pierre A Fournier‏ @pafournier May 27
        Replying to @GidMK

        With no priors isn't it reasonable?

        5 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani May 27
        Replying to @pafournier @GidMK

        I'd say it is reasonable if you only know that there are two possibilities, with no clue whatsoever about the likelihood of either. And in any case, you should make the choice of equal probability consciously.

        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Trot Stats‏ @TrotStats May 27
        Replying to @GidMK

        That's why you can learn so much from gambling. If you can't assess the probability of each event correctly enough you will lose money quickly. It's all about assessing the odds better than the consensus view if you want to win.

        2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      3. Jesse Lunsford MS,RDN‏ @JesseLunsford May 28
        Replying to @TrotStats @GidMK

        This is likely referring to Nate who was a successful poker player. I used to hold poker players in pretty high regard with thinking about things due to exactly what you've said, but this year changed my mind.

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Jonah Sack‏ @JonahSack May 27
        Replying to @GidMK

        I know this is a Nate Silver sub-tweet but it actually works better as a Nassim T=aleb sub-tweet.

        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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      1. stupmed‏ @stupmed May 27
        Replying to @GidMK

        The Finns are pretty good with numbers I bet they're right in this case. http://www.quotehd.com/quotes/matti-nykanen-quote-the-chances-are-fifty-sixty …

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Ariel Karlinsky‏ @ArielKarlinsky May 27
        Replying to @GidMK

        Are there aliens? Could be. Or couldn't. So I give it a 50% chance.

        1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
      3. Weltgeist redux  💉 💉‏ @Sociopathblog May 28
        Replying to @ArielKarlinsky @GidMK

        My prior was at 40 %. After your tweet I'll give it 45. #ManyPeopleAreSaying

        1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Grant Jacobs  🧬 🔬 💻 ✍️ 📚 🇳🇿‏ @BioinfoTools May 27
        Replying to @GidMK

        Tell me about. It seems impossible to tell him.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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