OK let's get this on record. What percentage chance would you assign to a lab leak? Because there are a lot of credible people I'm reading from and talking to that consider it reasonably likely (at least 50%).https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1397807872033976323 …
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This is an excellent summation that is well worth reading https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1397705594639818752?s=19 …
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I don't see good arguments there that should affect my assessment of what's more likely. That one theory is less likely bc it implies more evil-doing while the other theory is more likely bc it is simpler seems like fairly weak reasoning to me.
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Exactly. Asking for people to give percentage likelihood on a situation about which data are incomplete betrays a lack of understanding of the situation.
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Silver only does that to show the world he's hip to so-called Bayesian methods, which many people in the 'scientific community' find very stylish and indicative of the highest analytical sophistication.
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Why does he want this false precision? What does it accomplish?
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