This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same - natural origin very likely, lab leak thus far entirely unproven and a very low chance The rest is mostly misconceptions caused by reading only sensationalist headlineshttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1397160688284536842 …
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When the dust settles, people will expect a movie narrative explanation and economic reparations.
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Whenever we suggest someone read a person, rather than a collection of studies, we are placing trust in that person's ability to summarize the facts. Here's a convo I had w Nsikan. In your opinion, should someone who conducts ad hominem attacks in this manner be amplified?pic.twitter.com/azfCxeJZLr
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@TheStalwart@Noahpinion Is it just me or is there an increased amount of ad hominem attacks coming from the most popular proponents of natural origin? At a certain point it gets a bit excessive. Culture is odd and could inspire a story for you.pic.twitter.com/91OwoUP6ox
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Général consideration, probabilities
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There are many versions of the ‘lab leak’ hypothesis (leak of natural virus, leak of virus altered by passage in human cells, leak of virus with experimental GOF alterations). They all could explain why the pandemic started in the same city as WIV, not in likely endemic region.
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This is completely circumstantial evidence! But we are LACKING the circumstantial evidence we would expect with the ‘direct zoonotic spread’ hypothesis, namely, ID of an animal host that facilitated spread from bats to humans. I don’t see how we can say lab leak is less likely.
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Hi, the unroll you asked for: This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same -… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1397807872033976323.html … See you soon.
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Thanks! Scientists are not great at combatting misinformation because when they can’t disprove something, they feel obligated to say “because we can’t rule it out entirely… it means it’s possible” —although unlikely. Transparency & a full investigation are the best we can do.
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Is it accurate to say the evidence is the same? A commonly cited point is in the case of SARS and MERS in only months we had found the intermediary animal, yet 18 months in not here. That prompts some degree of reasonable reevaluation.
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