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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

      Health Nerd Retweeted Nate Silver

      This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same - natural origin very likely, lab leak thus far entirely unproven and a very low chance The rest is mostly misconceptions caused by reading only sensationalist headlineshttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1397160688284536842 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      Yeah, this is probably right. I wrote the other day how my priors had shifted from "natural origin slightly more likely" to "lab leak slightly more likely". But to me anyway, the evidence seems murky and inscrutable either way and I'm not sure it has *changed* that much. https://twitter.com/bendreyfuss/status/1396966383011913730 …
      Show this thread
      193 replies 372 retweets 2,367 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

      Health Nerd Retweeted Nsikan Akpan, PhD

      There is an excellent and comprehensive thread on the issue here, but the basic point is that experts pretty much universally agree that a natural origin is by far the most likely explanationhttps://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1396240581651742724?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Nsikan Akpan, PhDVerified account @MoNscience
      The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change first met in 1990, where it predicted that GHGs could fuel global warming. Even as more evidence accumulated, efforts to sow doubt delayed action. The “natural origins” vs “lab leak” debate around COVID-19 has entered this realm... pic.twitter.com/kZaGAOXMmg
      Show this thread
      30 replies 86 retweets 460 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

      It is POSSIBLE that there was a lab leak and THIS SHOULD BE INVESTIGATED, but it is also only a very SMALL possibility and certainly not more likely than a natural explanation

      29 replies 38 retweets 408 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

      The problem is when experts say that something is POSSIBLE the headlines scream that it is LIKELY, which leads to misconceptions such as the above

      10 replies 38 retweets 417 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

      For example, here is a paper by some pre-eminent researchers saying that the lab leak theory should be examined but noting that the WHO has so far classified the idea as "extremely unlikely"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1 …

      23 replies 22 retweets 222 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

      The problem is that we haven't investigated a lab leak enough to say with any certainty that it is not what happened, but that is ~not the same~ as making it more probable

      15 replies 15 retweets 259 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

      Health Nerd Retweeted Nsikan Akpan, PhD

      Some more excellent reading on the topichttps://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1397696019933143040?s=19 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Nsikan Akpan, PhDVerified account @MoNscience
      "To explain where SARS-CoV-2 came from, look at processes with scientific explanations and precedents." @d_samorodnitsky gets it. (via @massivesci) https://massivesci.com/articles/sars-cov-coronavirus-covid19-lab-leak-hypothesis/ …
      Show this thread
      2:13 AM - 27 May 2021
      • 17 Retweets
      • 159 Likes
      • your sister is a werewolf Eminently 🏳️‍🌈 Karsten Haustein 🌍 The cutie Goat-Fox that says "Mew!" A lot. 🐐🦊✍🏼 Ravvi Coco the Canadian Socialist Rat🇨🇦 🇨🇦 JM smchatter sam lister
      22 replies 17 retweets 159 likes
        1. Andy‏ @thegodmachinist May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          When the dust settles, people will expect a movie narrative explanation and economic reparations.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          Whenever we suggest someone read a person, rather than a collection of studies, we are placing trust in that person's ability to summarize the facts. Here's a convo I had w Nsikan. In your opinion, should someone who conducts ad hominem attacks in this manner be amplified?pic.twitter.com/azfCxeJZLr

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal May 27
          Replying to @M1tchRosenthal @GidMK

          @TheStalwart @Noahpinion Is it just me or is there an increased amount of ad hominem attacks coming from the most popular proponents of natural origin? At a certain point it gets a bit excessive. Culture is odd and could inspire a story for you.pic.twitter.com/91OwoUP6ox

          4 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. marsouin‏ @marsouin4 May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          Général consideration, probabilities

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Piranga‏ @RRcandid May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          There are many versions of the ‘lab leak’ hypothesis (leak of natural virus, leak of virus altered by passage in human cells, leak of virus with experimental GOF alterations). They all could explain why the pandemic started in the same city as WIV, not in likely endemic region.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Piranga‏ @RRcandid May 27
          Replying to @RRcandid @GidMK

          This is completely circumstantial evidence! But we are LACKING the circumstantial evidence we would expect with the ‘direct zoonotic spread’ hypothesis, namely, ID of an animal host that facilitated spread from bats to humans. I don’t see how we can say lab leak is less likely.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. VoilaVee³‏ @Voilavee3 May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          @Threadreaderapp unroll

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp May 27
          Replying to @Voilavee3

          Hi, the unroll you asked for: This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same -… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1397807872033976323.html … See you soon. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Dr. Shelly W.‏ @AquaShena May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          Thanks! Scientists are not great at combatting misinformation because when they can’t disprove something, they feel obligated to say “because we can’t rule it out entirely… it means it’s possible” —although unlikely. Transparency & a full investigation are the best we can do.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Andrew Baeckstrom‏ @abaeckst May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          Is it accurate to say the evidence is the same? A commonly cited point is in the case of SARS and MERS in only months we had found the intermediary animal, yet 18 months in not here. That prompts some degree of reasonable reevaluation.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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