This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same - natural origin very likely, lab leak thus far entirely unproven and a very low chance The rest is mostly misconceptions caused by reading only sensationalist headlineshttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1397160688284536842 …
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Some more excellent reading on the topichttps://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1397696019933143040?s=19 …
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Here's something that makes it more probable: every week that passes by with zero progress on tracing the natural origin of this virus. Early in 2020, Andersen, Holmes and others predicted that we would probably find an intermediate host soon. It's now May 2021 and we haven't.
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It's harder to do this when R0 is higher and severity is lower... found when it's amplified in market, hospital, prison, etc rather than from cases of people w/ clear links to animals.
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If it didn't happen, its probability is 0. If it did happen, p is 1. Numbers in between reflect attempts to estimate evidence of very different kinds: from virology, zoonotic transfer, history of lab leaks, actions of Chinese government, etc. No easy estimations.
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There are potential natural origin sites across mainland SEA, horseshoe bats, beta coronaviruses and plenty of traffic to and from Wuhan. Populations in SEA that shrugged off the "Wuhan"' strain amazingly easily are now struggling to keep a lid on
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Are you using frequentist or Bayesian analysis for probability ratios?
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What I can't figure out: why people think China would lie about the lab but not about the farming route.
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