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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

      Health Nerd Retweeted Nate Silver

      This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same - natural origin very likely, lab leak thus far entirely unproven and a very low chance The rest is mostly misconceptions caused by reading only sensationalist headlineshttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1397160688284536842 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      Yeah, this is probably right. I wrote the other day how my priors had shifted from "natural origin slightly more likely" to "lab leak slightly more likely". But to me anyway, the evidence seems murky and inscrutable either way and I'm not sure it has *changed* that much. https://twitter.com/bendreyfuss/status/1396966383011913730 …
      Show this thread
      193 replies 372 retweets 2,367 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

      Health Nerd Retweeted Nsikan Akpan, PhD

      There is an excellent and comprehensive thread on the issue here, but the basic point is that experts pretty much universally agree that a natural origin is by far the most likely explanationhttps://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1396240581651742724?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Nsikan Akpan, PhDVerified account @MoNscience
      The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change first met in 1990, where it predicted that GHGs could fuel global warming. Even as more evidence accumulated, efforts to sow doubt delayed action. The “natural origins” vs “lab leak” debate around COVID-19 has entered this realm... pic.twitter.com/kZaGAOXMmg
      Show this thread
      30 replies 86 retweets 460 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

      It is POSSIBLE that there was a lab leak and THIS SHOULD BE INVESTIGATED, but it is also only a very SMALL possibility and certainly not more likely than a natural explanation

      29 replies 38 retweets 408 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

      The problem is when experts say that something is POSSIBLE the headlines scream that it is LIKELY, which leads to misconceptions such as the above

      12:01 AM - 27 May 2021
      • 38 Retweets
      • 417 Likes
      • Tian Artsakh Re-Occupation Committee your sister is a werewolf Eminently 🏳️‍🌈 Janet Li 2kool4school Klaus Hentrich 💙 Susan Chubb#FBPA⚫️#RejoinEU 💙🏴‍☠️ Lek na Covid jest w aptekach: fluwoksamina.
      10 replies 38 retweets 417 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

          For example, here is a paper by some pre-eminent researchers saying that the lab leak theory should be examined but noting that the WHO has so far classified the idea as "extremely unlikely"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1 …

          23 replies 22 retweets 222 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

          The problem is that we haven't investigated a lab leak enough to say with any certainty that it is not what happened, but that is ~not the same~ as making it more probable

          15 replies 15 retweets 259 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

          Health Nerd Retweeted Nsikan Akpan, PhD

          Some more excellent reading on the topichttps://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1397696019933143040?s=19 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Nsikan Akpan, PhDVerified account @MoNscience
          "To explain where SARS-CoV-2 came from, look at processes with scientific explanations and precedents." @d_samorodnitsky gets it. (via @massivesci) https://massivesci.com/articles/sars-cov-coronavirus-covid19-lab-leak-hypothesis/ …
          Show this thread
          22 replies 17 retweets 159 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. M H Thaung‏ @mhthaung May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          Being a cautious pathologist, I quite often say, "I cannot totally exclude the possibility of..." but that does't mean I think it's *likely* - just advice to take it into account with all the other info and keep an eye out for discrepancies.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Ryan Radecki, MD MS‏Verified account @emlitofnote May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          They’re only taking the very reasonable stance of requiring irrefutable proof this virus strain didn’t come from a lab, which is easily obtained to their satisfaction.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Jonathan Berman‏ @JZBerman May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          Consistent with this notion, here's a paper that suggests that when probability estimates are revised upwards, people intuitively think events are more likely than they are. https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fpspa0000058 …

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. BLM GND M4A‏ @Carson86234854 May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          I understand and appreciate that you’re hear to clear up misconceptions around what scientists are saying, but you should know the media makes these stories to fearmonger over foreign nations our government doesn’t like on purpose. They know what they’re doing.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Jean Pierre Dupays‏ @dupays May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          We must do our best to make sure a pandemic caused by a lab leak will never again be a possibility let alone a reality.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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