This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same - natural origin very likely, lab leak thus far entirely unproven and a very low chance The rest is mostly misconceptions caused by reading only sensationalist headlineshttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1397160688284536842 …
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The problem is when experts say that something is POSSIBLE the headlines scream that it is LIKELY, which leads to misconceptions such as the above
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For example, here is a paper by some pre-eminent researchers saying that the lab leak theory should be examined but noting that the WHO has so far classified the idea as "extremely unlikely"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1 …
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The problem is that we haven't investigated a lab leak enough to say with any certainty that it is not what happened, but that is ~not the same~ as making it more probable
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Some more excellent reading on the topichttps://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1397696019933143040?s=19 …
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I don't understand this cognitive bias where people assume multiple possibilities = all possibilities equally likely
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Evidence is not cognitive bias. The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of lab leak and has been for over a year. This isn’t difficult. Only idiots or those afraid of losing funding can’t understand this.
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To me the upsetting part is that China has not provided data from patient zero yet.
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I think this is prejudging the investigation Gideon, and don't agree. It is by no means unlikely that a natural spillover could have happened via mishandling of a sample or captive animal and the labs in Wuhan represent a concentration of risk.https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1392903027569299467?s=03 …
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It is not necessarily unlikely that it could happen, but at this point I think it is entirely reasonable to argue that it is unlikely that it DID
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