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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

      Health Nerd Retweeted Nate Silver

      This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same - natural origin very likely, lab leak thus far entirely unproven and a very low chance The rest is mostly misconceptions caused by reading only sensationalist headlineshttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1397160688284536842 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      Yeah, this is probably right. I wrote the other day how my priors had shifted from "natural origin slightly more likely" to "lab leak slightly more likely". But to me anyway, the evidence seems murky and inscrutable either way and I'm not sure it has *changed* that much. https://twitter.com/bendreyfuss/status/1396966383011913730 …
      Show this thread
      193 replies 372 retweets 2,367 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

      Health Nerd Retweeted Nsikan Akpan, PhD

      There is an excellent and comprehensive thread on the issue here, but the basic point is that experts pretty much universally agree that a natural origin is by far the most likely explanationhttps://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1396240581651742724?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Nsikan Akpan, PhDVerified account @MoNscience
      The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change first met in 1990, where it predicted that GHGs could fuel global warming. Even as more evidence accumulated, efforts to sow doubt delayed action. The “natural origins” vs “lab leak” debate around COVID-19 has entered this realm... pic.twitter.com/kZaGAOXMmg
      Show this thread
      30 replies 86 retweets 460 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

      It is POSSIBLE that there was a lab leak and THIS SHOULD BE INVESTIGATED, but it is also only a very SMALL possibility and certainly not more likely than a natural explanation

      11:58 PM - 26 May 2021
      • 38 Retweets
      • 408 Likes
      • your sister is a werewolf Zen Bonobo Eminently 🏳️‍🌈 CharlotteC💙 Amanda T Susan Chubb#FBPA⚫️#RejoinEU 💙🏴‍☠️ Jerry Karsten Haustein 🌍 Erik Rudi
      29 replies 38 retweets 408 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

          The problem is when experts say that something is POSSIBLE the headlines scream that it is LIKELY, which leads to misconceptions such as the above

          10 replies 38 retweets 417 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

          For example, here is a paper by some pre-eminent researchers saying that the lab leak theory should be examined but noting that the WHO has so far classified the idea as "extremely unlikely"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1 …

          23 replies 22 retweets 222 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

          The problem is that we haven't investigated a lab leak enough to say with any certainty that it is not what happened, but that is ~not the same~ as making it more probable

          15 replies 15 retweets 259 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

          Health Nerd Retweeted Nsikan Akpan, PhD

          Some more excellent reading on the topichttps://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1397696019933143040?s=19 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Nsikan Akpan, PhDVerified account @MoNscience
          "To explain where SARS-CoV-2 came from, look at processes with scientific explanations and precedents." @d_samorodnitsky gets it. (via @massivesci) https://massivesci.com/articles/sars-cov-coronavirus-covid19-lab-leak-hypothesis/ …
          Show this thread
          22 replies 17 retweets 159 likes
          Show this thread
        6. End of conversation
        1. Radical Centrist, wrathful tantric deity‏ @RadCentrism May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          All false.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Edward Nirenberg‏ @ENirenberg May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          I don't understand this cognitive bias where people assume multiple possibilities = all possibilities equally likely

          3 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
        3. Radical Centrist, wrathful tantric deity‏ @RadCentrism May 27
          Replying to @ENirenberg @GidMK

          Evidence is not cognitive bias. The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of lab leak and has been for over a year. This isn’t difficult. Only idiots or those afraid of losing funding can’t understand this.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Ola Grimsholm, PhD‏ @AnImmunologist May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          To me the upsetting part is that China has not provided data from patient zero yet.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Maester Magoo the Compassionate‏ @Maestermagoo May 27
          Replying to @AnImmunologist @GidMK

          I'd ask @WhereIsYanLing

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Tom Andrews 💙‏ @0bj3ctivity May 27
          Replying to @GidMK

          Tom Andrews 💙 Retweeted Bloom Lab

          I think this is prejudging the investigation Gideon, and don't agree. It is by no means unlikely that a natural spillover could have happened via mishandling of a sample or captive animal and the labs in Wuhan represent a concentration of risk.https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1392903027569299467?s=03 …

          Tom Andrews 💙 added,

          Bloom Lab @jbloom_lab
          In letter published in @ScienceMagazine today, I join 17 other scientists in calling for further investigation of #SARSCoV2 origins, including objective consideration of both accidental lab leak and natural zoonosis: https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abj0016 … (1/n)
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27
          Replying to @0bj3ctivity

          It is not necessarily unlikely that it could happen, but at this point I think it is entirely reasonable to argue that it is unlikely that it DID

          1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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