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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

    Health Nerd Retweeted Nate Silver

    This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same - natural origin very likely, lab leak thus far entirely unproven and a very low chance The rest is mostly misconceptions caused by reading only sensationalist headlineshttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1397160688284536842 …

    Health Nerd added,

    Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
    Yeah, this is probably right. I wrote the other day how my priors had shifted from "natural origin slightly more likely" to "lab leak slightly more likely". But to me anyway, the evidence seems murky and inscrutable either way and I'm not sure it has *changed* that much. https://twitter.com/bendreyfuss/status/1396966383011913730 …
    Show this thread
    11:52 PM - 26 May 2021
    • 372 Retweets
    • 2,367 Likes
    • אבו-הוביט 🚴‍♂️🟣 abu_hobbit 🏴 Tian Persephone Wired Artsakh Re-Occupation Committee Anticapitalist Amy your sister is a werewolf Eminently 🏳️‍🌈 Maaike Verbruggen SIGILUX
    193 replies 372 retweets 2,367 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

        Health Nerd Retweeted Nsikan Akpan, PhD

        There is an excellent and comprehensive thread on the issue here, but the basic point is that experts pretty much universally agree that a natural origin is by far the most likely explanationhttps://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1396240581651742724?s=20 …

        Health Nerd added,

        Nsikan Akpan, PhDVerified account @MoNscience
        The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change first met in 1990, where it predicted that GHGs could fuel global warming. Even as more evidence accumulated, efforts to sow doubt delayed action. The “natural origins” vs “lab leak” debate around COVID-19 has entered this realm... pic.twitter.com/kZaGAOXMmg
        Show this thread
        30 replies 86 retweets 460 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 26

        It is POSSIBLE that there was a lab leak and THIS SHOULD BE INVESTIGATED, but it is also only a very SMALL possibility and certainly not more likely than a natural explanation

        29 replies 38 retweets 408 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

        The problem is when experts say that something is POSSIBLE the headlines scream that it is LIKELY, which leads to misconceptions such as the above

        10 replies 38 retweets 417 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

        For example, here is a paper by some pre-eminent researchers saying that the lab leak theory should be examined but noting that the WHO has so far classified the idea as "extremely unlikely"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1 …

        23 replies 22 retweets 222 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

        The problem is that we haven't investigated a lab leak enough to say with any certainty that it is not what happened, but that is ~not the same~ as making it more probable

        15 replies 15 retweets 259 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 27

        Health Nerd Retweeted Nsikan Akpan, PhD

        Some more excellent reading on the topichttps://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1397696019933143040?s=19 …

        Health Nerd added,

        Nsikan Akpan, PhDVerified account @MoNscience
        "To explain where SARS-CoV-2 came from, look at processes with scientific explanations and precedents." @d_samorodnitsky gets it. (via @massivesci) https://massivesci.com/articles/sars-cov-coronavirus-covid19-lab-leak-hypothesis/ …
        Show this thread
        22 replies 17 retweets 159 likes
        Show this thread
      8. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Christopher Voß‏ @VoChristopher May 26
        Replying to @GidMK

        Could you give an explanation as to why a natural origin is far more likely? As far as I remember the reason was that it would be very hard for scientists to create or change a virus in such a stable way.

        3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. sonia‏ @ophrys_91 May 26
        Replying to @GidMK

        A virus can have natural origins AND have leaked from a lab. I don't understand the contraposition

        3 replies 0 retweets 44 likes
      3. Laymans Science‏ @LaymansScience May 27
        Replying to @ophrys_91 @GidMK

        The Lab leak theory is more focused specifically on it was designed in the lab and then leaked not that it was a wild type that leaked

        6 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
      4. Show replies

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