My brief summary: seasonality is probably a thing, determining how much it impacts anything for a novel disease is still a nightmarish headache of uncertainty
Thoughts @MackayIM @angie_rasmussen @SaskiaPopescu?
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Replying to @GidMK @liammannix and
@GidMK do you doubt that C-19 seasonality is a thing ?! Look at the graph below. Basically, all respiratory viruses are seasonal. Strangely they are present in the Tropics year-round at intermediate levels**pic.twitter.com/MspMMGkQXa
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Replying to @PatrickSSte @GidMK and
Without adding in the context of what was happening in each jurisdiction (e.g. lots, even within jurisdictions) - this graph is basically useless for supporting your hypothesis
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Replying to @MackayIM @PatrickSSte and
Seasonality is quite obvious. No?pic.twitter.com/G5HDRl6cLB
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Replying to @tabulla_rassa @PatrickSSte and
Number of deaths with time is quite obvious. Mark in there all Govt messaging, behavioural patterns, media story intensity, increased or decreased restrictions, community movements, office density, travel changes, ouvou transport usage, public hols, school holds-and stuff
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Replying to @MackayIM @tabulla_rassa and
So you're saying C-19 is seasonal? Or it isn't? Or it might be?
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Replying to @PatrickSSte @MackayIM and
I believe Ian tries to say that behavioral and societal conditions are more relevant to spread than the meteorological conditions that are often attached to the term “seasonality”
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Replying to @misael_pandawto @PatrickSSte and
The World Meteorological Org's expert panel had a look at this. I think their point is on the available data it is very difficult to prove COVID is seasonal, or even to say so with moderate certainty, because there are so many co-factors
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Replying to @liammannix @misael_pandawto and
That doesn't mean it's not seasonal. The evidence probably leans that way. But we don't have conclusive proof. That's my interpretation of what they're trying to say, anyway
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Replying to @liammannix @misael_pandawto and
I'm finding this conversation surprising Pretty well all respiratory viruses have winter seasonality. CoV-2 would be the exception if it didn't It may not be important for public policy, but it's very important for understanding the biochem of the virushttps://youtu.be/zKY2KfmTXLo
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There's a very big difference between the possibility that *once endemic* the virus will be substantially seasonal and the idea that the initial outbreaks of pandemic disease were heavily impacted by seasonality
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