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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu May 25

      Is containing COVID-19 a requirement for preserving the economy? My analysis suggests: probably not. In the US, there is no correlation between Covid deaths & changes in unemployment rates. However, blue states are much more likely to have higher increases in unemployment. 🧵pic.twitter.com/JrikBtawEb

      153 replies 678 retweets 1,903 likes
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    2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu May 25

      We can dive deeper by looking at levels of restrictions in each state, using the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). More restrictions in a state is NOT correlated with fewer COVID-19 deaths. However, more restrictions IS correlated with higher unemployment.pic.twitter.com/AD3lv2nJIP

      35 replies 360 retweets 893 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu May 25

      The most interesting data point is South Dakota. As the only state to never order closures of restaurants, bars & retail, SD actually saw a 0.5% DECREASE in unemployment since the pandemic started. It also never ordered a mask mandate. Its deaths per capita is the 10th highest.

      16 replies 45 retweets 335 likes
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    4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu May 25

      As we all know, the level of restrictions is strongly correlated with the political leaning of a state. Putting it all together, it's possible more restrictions can explain why blue states saw higher unemployment increases since the start of the pandemic than red states.pic.twitter.com/abYOryeKFm

      4 replies 36 retweets 250 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu May 25

      But interestingly, political lean (and level of restrictions) is NOT correlated with total Covid deaths. Regardless of one's political beliefs, the data does not support that blue states did better than red states at containing Covid, or vice versa.pic.twitter.com/BxxAkXS67U

      13 replies 104 retweets 482 likes
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    6. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu May 25

      Even if you remove the Northeast states that were hard-hit early on in 2020 (NY, NJ, CT, MA), the correlation is still very weak. While not a concrete proof, this supports the theory that the virus is inherently unpredictable, regardless of restrictions, political beliefs, etc.pic.twitter.com/2NIa0t6dvq

      12 replies 80 retweets 431 likes
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    7. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu May 25

      Here are a few other factors I looked at: age, population density, urban vs rural, and income. All show no or minimal correlations with deaths. If you had showed me this data before the pandemic, I would've expected a much higher correlation. But we must adapt to new data.pic.twitter.com/h8xkIPwLTs

      22 replies 52 retweets 371 likes
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    8. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu May 25

      There is a common belief among many that restrictions are universally effective in containing Covid, and that containment is a prerequisite to preserving the economy. At least in the US, the data does not appear to support this theory.

      13 replies 105 retweets 508 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 25
      Replying to @youyanggu

      I don't think that's a common belief per se, but I'd also point out that analysing US states in this fashion could easily be misleading as they have no borders from each other

      3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    10. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu May 25
      Replying to @GidMK

      Well I’m only analyzing it for US and not extrapolating to other countries. It’s misleading if misinterpreted. Conversely, many tried to argue that “zero Covid is the only path for economic growth” and extrapolate it to the US. I think that’s what’s misleading!

      4 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 25
      Replying to @youyanggu

      But without any coordinated federal plan, it's a bit like gun legislation - only so much you could expect in terms of the differences between individual states imo

      10:06 PM - 25 May 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • The Real Truther COVID questions
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. TMedia‏ @TurkeyMedia May 25
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          Also the timing of restrictions is a very important parameter which can not be ignored in a model.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu May 25
          Replying to @GidMK

          The analysis does not make any assumptions or judgments about the presence of a federal plan. If such a plan was in place, perhaps the results would be different.

          4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 25
          Replying to @youyanggu

          Sure, but the point is that it's hard to garner much meaning from this story of analysis when there are so many externalities that could be influencing the relationship. A bit like that ridiculous linear regression in the NYT about masks and cases a while back

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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