G'day #ScienceTwitter. Melbourne is heading back into winter. What's the state of the evidence for COVID-19 and seasonality/cold-weather?
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I was just about to text you! Anything you suggest I read?
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Tbh not my area of expertise! The others might have a better idea of the best evidence here
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Longish thread that does not add much to your summary, but tries to point out that seasonality does not necessarily mean outside of human control.https://twitter.com/Marco_Piani/status/1388412681447739394?s=20 …
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So it may be seasonal in the sense that opportunities for transmission increase in the winter. It's not seasonal the same way as flu, in which ecological components like bird migration factor in.
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Thankyou! Do you have any papers you suggest I look at?
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My 2c. Effect of temp and humidity on virus=minor player in spread of a novel virus or virus variant. The greater factor is lack of community immunity & community behaviours. Crowding indoors may happen more (although in our a/c lifestyle in Aus I wonder about extent of this)
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And because we're talking about a novel virus, there is no immunity to speak of. Then factor in that there is also no community transmission unless virus escapes from border controls (which actually isn't that common).
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Australia & South Africa COVID cases/death compared to each country's observed influenza A & B cases over five year average (dashed black line at bottom) Note in particular disconnect in South Africa Data from WHO FluNet, Johns Hopkins, Google Mobilitypic.twitter.com/8FN41Q3Fce
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We have experience with other coronaviruses, and they are extremely seasonal. Covid has so far acted almost exactly as they do. Top graph is the NYT Covid case curve (x3), & bottom graph is from this J Clin Virol. study: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7106380/ …pic.twitter.com/jyJsHgsBdL
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One of the earliest studies predicting the seasonality of Covid was by
@firefoxx66 and@richardneher in March 2020. They were on this early. Most still seem unaware of Covid's marked seasonality, & I fear that will lead to complacency going into fall 2021.https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224 … - Show replies
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