1/n Some more movement on this study from earlier in the year by Drs Ioannidis, Bhattacharya, Oh, and Bendavid
Along with @lonnibesancon, @FLAHAULT, and others, we've published a series of responses and ongoing critiques of the piecehttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1349164532627693570 …
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10/n This is a problem because it means that the analysis is entirely limited to the 'upwards' part of the epidemic curve If mrNPIs have an effect that is mostly seen on the decline, this would by definition be missed
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11/n 5. While we also had some quibbles about language, the final major argument is to do with the model againpic.twitter.com/B0a0rh6UMS
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12/n Ultimately, we still have the same overall gripe. It is pretty much impossible from the evidence presented in the original research to conclude that mrNPIs work or do notpic.twitter.com/YH4MMbZBJg
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13/n Indeed, as we point out, unless the authors spend some time delineating exactly what a "more" or "less" restrictive response to COVID-19 actually is, there isn't much you can take home from the analysis anyway
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14/n My personal position remains mostly the same on these interventions, that more restrictive ones probably weren't that beneficial in the early days of the pandemic, but that it's really, really hard to know either way
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End of conversation
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