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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      1/n Some more movement on this study from earlier in the year by Drs Ioannidis, Bhattacharya, Oh, and Bendavid Along with @lonnibesancon, @FLAHAULT, and others, we've published a series of responses and ongoing critiques of the piecehttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1349164532627693570 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      A new paper has been published by John Ioannidis and Jay "Great Barrington Declaration" Bhattacharya on "lockdowns" as a COVID-19 preventative measure Let's do some twitter peer-review! 1/n https://twitter.com/andrewbostom/status/1348271129887191041 …
      Show this thread
      3 replies 15 retweets 57 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

      2/n The newest response is here, and you can have a look at the previous discussion as well:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13599 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

      3/n For reference, if you've forgotten, the original article basically argued that "more" restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (mrNPIs) such as lockdowns didn't work to prevent COVID-19 cases It is MASSIVELY popular, with an Altmetric of 19k and dozens of citationspic.twitter.com/VTqbA6rWNP

      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

      4/n Our basic arguments are pretty simple: 1. Sample size - this study uses a very small sample. That's not really debated by the authors, and it's a limitationpic.twitter.com/pETDhIA4cT

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

      5/n (Weirdly, they have also contradicted their original paper in the replies to the piece - where before they said that their paper had data for every country available, they're now saying they applied a strange exclusion)pic.twitter.com/M6UYVpzDFP

      2 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

      6/n 2. The classification of countries as "high" or "low" restriction is arbitrary. In their reply, the authors literally just contradicted us, so we've now got quite a bit of text demonstrating why this is an issuepic.twitter.com/wKQfmK56FI

      7:29 PM - 23 May 2021
      • 15 Likes
      • Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität Ciencia y conciencia RalfFFM Laura McCall #NoMassInfection Fabrice FRANK Jason Kindrachuk, PhD Lonni Besançon 🇫🇷 🇸🇪 Fabian Boetzl Guffy
      1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

          7/n This is pretty simple - if you don't explain why (say) South Korea is a "low" restriction country, how can we compare it to "high" restriction ones? The categorization is fundamental to the entire paper

          1 reply 0 retweets 24 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

          8/n 3. Issues with the model. In particular, the policy variablepic.twitter.com/JW7MKXu6tY

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

          9/n 4. Issues with the use of time lags, and the time period studied In particular, the authors say that they analyzed the data up until the "elimination of rapid growth in the first wave"pic.twitter.com/ie6Qt71EyY

          1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

          10/n This is a problem because it means that the analysis is entirely limited to the 'upwards' part of the epidemic curve If mrNPIs have an effect that is mostly seen on the decline, this would by definition be missed

          1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

          11/n 5. While we also had some quibbles about language, the final major argument is to do with the model againpic.twitter.com/B0a0rh6UMS

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

          12/n Ultimately, we still have the same overall gripe. It is pretty much impossible from the evidence presented in the original research to conclude that mrNPIs work or do notpic.twitter.com/YH4MMbZBJg

          1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

          13/n Indeed, as we point out, unless the authors spend some time delineating exactly what a "more" or "less" restrictive response to COVID-19 actually is, there isn't much you can take home from the analysis anyway

          1 reply 0 retweets 25 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 23

          14/n My personal position remains mostly the same on these interventions, that more restrictive ones probably weren't that beneficial in the early days of the pandemic, but that it's really, really hard to know either way

          1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
          Show this thread
        10. End of conversation

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