I'm fairly happy to short the "actually, lockdowns were good for people's mental health!" position as better evidence comes out over the next several years.https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1396074337090691079 …
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Suicide =/= mental health. I'd recommend reading some of
@tylerblack32 threads if you're interested in the topic rather than tedious straw men
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Replying to @GidMK @tylerblack32
If you think you're being straw-manned, you should be more precise about what you're saying. In various tweets in your thread, you're both suggesting that lockdowns decrease suicides and that there's no relationship between them. The former is a much more ambitious claim.
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The studies do show no increase in suicide during lockdowns, but that estimate is confounded because lockdowns only occur when covid rates are high. Lockdowns in those times don’t increase suicides even if lockdowns all else equal might. Ergo only do lockdowns when necessary.
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rather impossible to disambiguate, though.
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It could be disambiguated by looking at the timing or comparing places with similar covid rates and different lockdown policies. Or comparing groups differentially affected by lockdowns. (I’m a health economist, that’s what I do for a living.)
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yeah on that front there isn't a lot of support for rate being associated with lockdown status (decreases regardless of lockdown policy), but even then, that's correlational work and not excellent for cause. at best "suggest"
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The best explanation I've heard so far is yours tbh - a combination of increased interventions aimed at preventing suicide, community pulling together, and perhaps some measure of reducing access to means
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That said, I’m still worried about everyone’s mental health right now. Trauma plus isolation plus feeling like the pandemic is supposed to be “over” while also seeming to drag on forever. The US is prob different than other countries - ahead in vaccinations but behind in cases.
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Agreed. I think overall mental health is a serious issue which is often ignored in these weirdly defensive arguments about suicide rates
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haha welcome to my world :P every time i post about suicide rates i'm called a whole host of names!
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It's so bizarre! People assume (falsely) that suicide rates perfectly correlate with diagnosed mental health disorders and get so angry when you point out that this is not really true
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