One tip: if mortality has been declining every year since 1900, and you don't take this into account in your analysis of expected deaths, you are probably going to be wrong
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That sounds fascinating! Do you have a favorite one, maybe a faulty comparison between spanish flu and covid?
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A reference to Ivor's tweet right? xd
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Sweden's mortality chart (from
@HMDatabase ) was used by Israeli skeptics as late as December 2020 to show a decline in mortality - and displayed *without removing the original disclaimer* saying in red letters that the data is not final.https://twitter.com/nehonotlishatan/status/1361170889530867712?s=20 …
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Only two months later, in Feb., HMD's chart for Sweden looked very different, see here: https://twitter.com/nehonotlishatan/status/1361170902067666944 …. BTW, this wasn't updated in the skeptic blog (though a *second* disclaimer was added by their blog's publishing platform).
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To be clear, a large amount of the past year+’s excess mortality isn’t Covid-caused. It’s the result of people being unwilling or unable to access health care for non-Covid conditions (and not because hospitals were overrun).
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Where would the data on that be?
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I saw one graph recently that had a 10 year downtrend with a clear bump up in 2020. The creator of the graph took a 10 year average and drew a straight line across to show that excess mortality in 2020 was no greater than the "average". It was quite the piece of work.
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