The estimated number of AZ first doses delivered in the UK by the 12th of May was 23.9 million and the estimated number of second doses was 9.0 million. I'm not sure why this is an estimate, surely this number is known but I don't know how they record this.
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By the 12th of may, there have been 309 cases of major thromboembolic events with thrombocytopenia (blood clots), and 56 deaths (18% case fatality rate). CVST (brain clots) reported in 116 cases (average age 46 years) and 193 had other major events (average age 55 years).
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Number of UK suspected thrombo-embolic events with concurrent thrombocytopenia ADR reports received for the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca by patient age up to and including 12 May 2021.pic.twitter.com/YRMQ1mYvr1
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"At the time of this report, over 127,500 people across the UK have died within 28 days of a positive test for coronavirus."
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The case fatality rate of COVID is 1-3% based on the numbers I've looked at. So if you get it, you have a >97% chance of survival BUT it may be worse or better than that based on your age, that's a very blunt number and incorrect if you're older or comorbid.
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What does this all mean? First of all I think that saying "you can choose to risk death from covid which is a greater risk, vs death from clots from AZ which is a far lesser risk", is a false dichotomy. Pfizer is/will be available.
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Currently the options are for people over 50: 1. Wait for Pfizer and ride out winter. This is probably the risk-getting-covid scenario which needs to take into account your baseline health and fitness - and age.pic.twitter.com/RQhPLKvTSs
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As you can see, mortality from COVID starts rising substantially around age 50. Unfortunately, so does clotting risk from the AZ vaccine.
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2. Get the AZ vaccine and risk getting dangerous blood clots. You have a 99.9998% chance of not getting clots, BUT if you're that extremely unlucky person, you have a 20% chance of dying which is high (this may improve now that we know what we're dealing with.
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Worth noting that in Australia the risk of death post clot is already substantially lower than 20%, presumably because we do know what we're dealing with
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Replying to @GidMK @DrKate_Miller
And also (just a theory) perhaps because as awareness of the condition has grown, we’re picking up more mild cases which are less dangerous?
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