Agreed! This is actually how I explain it whenever I present it to a lay audience. mRNA vaccines reduce your chance of any infection ~10-fold or 10x (i.e. 90%).
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Agree. I often hear people say that they interpret 95% effective as a 5% chance they’d get covid if exposed vs 100% chance they’d get covid if unvaccinated and exposed, which isn’t true.
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I also remember reading a study like that -- perhaps by Gerd Gigerenzer. The take-home message, IIRC, is that people are better at reasoning with whole-number counts than with percentages.
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There's broader research from the
#infovis field looking at communicating information in relative frequencies v. percents relevant here too -@AlexKale17 I think I remember seeing a few examples in slides you shared a while ago? -
Frequency framing of probabilities comes from cognitive psychology theory https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.466.4098&rep=rep1&type=pdf … In our lab, we’ve built a whole research agenda around using this idea to design visualizations that show uncertainty as sets of discrete possible outcomes. https://mucollective.northwestern.edu/projects
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How would you communicate the findings from the Israel real world effectiveness data in those terms? https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/real-world-evidence-confirms-high-effectiveness-pfizer …
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