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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    2. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology May 16
      Replying to @dylanhmorris @JamesWard73

      Agreed! This is actually how I explain it whenever I present it to a lay audience. mRNA vaccines reduce your chance of any infection ~10-fold or 10x (i.e. 90%).

      2 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 16
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology @dylanhmorris @JamesWard73

      I'll have to look up the study, but there's some evidence that the most comprehensible way of explaining it is in absolute risk expressed as numbers per 100 e.g. we'd expect 50 in 100 people to get COVID-19 without Pfizer and 2-5 in 100 with the vaccine

      10:28 PM - 16 May 2021
      • 2 Retweets
      • 23 Likes
      • 🌹Dogs4ZeroHopium🐾 RJ - Nerd Dad 😷 Fully Vaccinated! Michael K. Goode, 🦆 larry Jo Elena Amanda Makulec MPH Angela Heasman aure
      4 replies 2 retweets 23 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Lance Burkhart‏ @LanceBurkhart4 May 16
          Replying to @GidMK @DiseaseEcology and

          Agree. I often hear people say that they interpret 95% effective as a 5% chance they’d get covid if exposed vs 100% chance they’d get covid if unvaccinated and exposed, which isn’t true.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Steve Wang‏ @SteveWang251 May 17
          Replying to @LanceBurkhart4 @GidMK

          Steve Wang Retweeted Steve Wang

          https://twitter.com/SteveWang251/status/1381951804330684420 …

          Steve Wang added,

          Steve Wang @SteveWang251
          PSA: When we say that the covid vaccines are (up to) 95% effective, that doesn't mean that you have a 5% chance of getting covid even if you're vaccinated. It means that if you're not vaccinated, your risk of getting covid is about 20 times higher (since 100/5 = 20).
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Steve Wang‏ @SteveWang251 May 17
          Replying to @GidMK @DiseaseEcology and

          I also remember reading a study like that -- perhaps by Gerd Gigerenzer. The take-home message, IIRC, is that people are better at reasoning with whole-number counts than with percentages.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Steve Wang‏ @SteveWang251 May 17
          Replying to @SteveWang251 @GidMK and

          Might have been this paper:https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9609869/ 

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Amanda Makulec MPH‏ @abmakulec May 17
          Replying to @GidMK @DiseaseEcology and

          There's broader research from the #infovis field looking at communicating information in relative frequencies v. percents relevant here too - @AlexKale17 I think I remember seeing a few examples in slides you shared a while ago?

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Alex Kale‏ @AlexKale17 May 18
          Replying to @abmakulec @GidMK and

          Frequency framing of probabilities comes from cognitive psychology theory https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.466.4098&rep=rep1&type=pdf … In our lab, we’ve built a whole research agenda around using this idea to design visualizations that show uncertainty as sets of discrete possible outcomes. https://mucollective.northwestern.edu/projects 

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Lance Burkhart‏ @LanceBurkhart4 May 17
          Replying to @GidMK @DiseaseEcology and

          How would you communicate the findings from the Israel real world effectiveness data in those terms? https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/real-world-evidence-confirms-high-effectiveness-pfizer …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Lance Burkhart‏ @LanceBurkhart4 May 17
          Replying to @LanceBurkhart4 @GidMK and

          Cc: @SteveWang251

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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