A useful graphic for considering COVID-19 IFRs - there are now more than a dozen countries in the world with a population fatality rate (PFR) > 0.15%, many with ongoing outbreaks (H/T @Marco_Piani)pic.twitter.com/jkSAi2uk3E
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For context, a PFR of 0.15% means that roughly one in every 670 people have died, 0.2% means 1 in 500 The highest is Hungary, with a PFR of 0.3%, meaning 1 in every 330 people have died of COVID-19 since March 2020
There are parts of Sweden with PFR just below 0,2.
Since some people in Brazil may have been reinfected, this isn't quite a mathematical inequality. (Of course, IFR estimates below 0.2% are quite clearly nonsense nevertheless.)
Assuming 50% of the population was infected (which is a very high estimate), IFR would be 0.4%.
By the way, here in Brazil there's a Congressman who also happens to be a physician who is one of the president most powerful influencers in health issues - and he keeps insisting since the beginning we already reached herd immunity because he believes in themagical 0.27% CFR.
Some reasons why age-adjusted IFR likely to be far higher: 1) Only a portion of population has been infected, in most cases <50% 2) Under-counting Covid deaths 3) Elderly sheltering behavior has reduced attack rates in this demographic (in US anyway), thankfully suppressing IFR.
I checked the US and the PFR is 0.18%. Hungary is at 0.3%. Wow.
Yep, truly massive figures. Scary stuff
Reconcile current US 0.18% PFR with 1% Levin early US IFR est: 0.18% / .341 (US pop share infected per extended GU) x 1.3 excess death adj (approx CDC) / 0.7 treatment improvements (reduced mortality 30%) = 1.05% early US Covid IFR = Not bad.
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