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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 12

    A useful graphic for considering COVID-19 IFRs - there are now more than a dozen countries in the world with a population fatality rate (PFR) > 0.15%, many with ongoing outbreaks (H/T @Marco_Piani)pic.twitter.com/jkSAi2uk3E

    6:33 PM - 12 May 2021
    • 53 Retweets
    • 173 Likes
    • Tereza Hot Camryn__Fisherbm81 wbb Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität #401 Gewond Verstand Abs LoogerLab mathieu chantalat Jakob Köhnsen
    13 replies 53 retweets 173 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 12

        Take Brazil as an example - roughly 1 in every 500 people have died of COVID-19, and the outbreak is still continuing It is impossible for the IFR to be <0.2%, and it's likely to be far higher overall

        10 replies 13 retweets 84 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 12

        For context, a PFR of 0.15% means that roughly one in every 670 people have died, 0.2% means 1 in 500 The highest is Hungary, with a PFR of 0.3%, meaning 1 in every 330 people have died of COVID-19 since March 2020

        4 replies 4 retweets 43 likes
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      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani May 12
        Replying to @GidMK

        Here a representation with a slight different choice of parameters. ~22 countries with more than 1,000,000 people and a PFR > 0.15% Also more countries having crossed or about to cross PFR ~0.25%, with deaths mostly accumulated in the last months.pic.twitter.com/b0DDW2bm0Q

        1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 12
        Replying to @Marco_Piani

        One very minor point - while OWID has the "official" count for Mexico, the public health authority has revised their death numbers up by 60% I believe, so it is probably higher than 0.2% now

        2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan May 12
        Replying to @GidMK @Marco_Piani

        Re: "more than a dozen countries in the world with a population fatality rate (PFR) > 0.15%" Some of the same folks who downplayed the risk anthropogenic climate change, also downplayed the risk of COVID-19. They never learn 🙄 Nic Lewis + @WEschenbach: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1350494269283434497 …pic.twitter.com/iejfkEBD6r

        1 reply 3 retweets 22 likes
      3. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan May 12
        Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @GidMK and

        Re: "Some of the same folks who downplayed the risk anthropogenic climate change, also downplayed the risk of COVID-19." Many of those deniers are ideologically-motivated sociopaths who said the pandemic was over in spring 2020. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1350097108339142661 … https://archive.is/4Gtfj#selection-567.0-567.146 …pic.twitter.com/mf8OkFI5Rn

        2 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. James Wood‏ @JamesGWood_UNSW May 12
        Replying to @GidMK @Marco_Piani

        And for many countries this is an undercount, if you consider all-cause mortality. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker … now has 5> 0.3% (noting that they capture only perhaps 1/3rd of countries) all basically within a 1 year period.pic.twitter.com/tH2cUZnyBf

        2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
      3. Damjan Vlastelica  💉 💉 😷 📉 📊 🎨 🖌️ 🇦🇺 🇷🇸 🇪🇺 🌍 🚴‏ @DamjanVlastelic May 12
        Replying to @JamesGWood_UNSW @GidMK @Marco_Piani

        whatever happened of the BCG vaccinating countries are seeing lower death rates as it may confer some type of protection hypothesis from the early days? Clearly not the case looking at the worst peformers there

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Richard Wazny‏ @WaznyRichard May 12
        Replying to @GidMK @Marco_Piani

        Excellent graph

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. (((Rich Stein)))Stay safe 😷 💉 🦠 & be kind‏ @RunRichRun May 12
        Replying to @GidMK @Marco_Piani

        👆Attn: @StevenTDennis Yep, most definitely still a very ugly, very nasty pandemic. :(

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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