The risk of COVID-19 for children is quite obviously not zero, anyone who says that is trivially wronghttps://twitter.com/malar0ne/status/1392236006368104448 …
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more
Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more
By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.
| Country | Code | For customers of |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 40404 | (any) |
| Canada | 21212 | (any) |
| United Kingdom | 86444 | Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2 |
| Brazil | 40404 | Nextel, TIM |
| Haiti | 40404 | Digicel, Voila |
| Ireland | 51210 | Vodafone, O2 |
| India | 53000 | Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance |
| Indonesia | 89887 | AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata |
| Italy | 4880804 | Wind |
| 3424486444 | Vodafone | |
| » See SMS short codes for other countries | ||
This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.
Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.
When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.
The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.
Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.
Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.
Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.
See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.
Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.
Health Nerd Retweeted Mallory Harris
The risk of COVID-19 for children is quite obviously not zero, anyone who says that is trivially wronghttps://twitter.com/malar0ne/status/1392236006368104448 …
Health Nerd added,
Have the GBD proponents ever discussed any risk associated to COVID-19 that is not just the individual risk of death under best treatment? I'm not just talking about "long COVID". I'm thinking about the risk of overwhelming the system, or of more standard long-term consequences
What is Leavitt talking about? Where in the Imperial College report was it claimed COVID-19 had a CFR of 14 %? I recall no such claims being made by anyone that the CFR would look like this, and certainly wasn't used in the models.pic.twitter.com/fXC8Jayuu8
The naive CFR (not taking into account any delays) was enormous at the beginning. The point is that the CFR means little given that it depends on how many cases you detect. I do not think the IC team was interesed in that.pic.twitter.com/kj1meeKPrK
Here the 100% CFR in Iran!pic.twitter.com/5AO9fOEnWp
What is bad of Levitt and others is that they appear to depict the IC team or the WHO as unable to tell apart the CFR and the IFR. Hence all the noise about the WHO reporting ~3% of cases dying, as if the WHO was implying that the IFR was 3%--it was not!
The IC team published their first estimate of the IFR of COVID-19, stratified by age, using data from the Diamond Princess, in early March 2020 They were almost exactly correct at that time
Yep. That’s what they used for their UK model, which, based on actual conditions, has turned out to be optimistic. They did not even considered actual lockdowns. W just case isolation, quarantine @home, &social distancing, their 2-year estimate is well below the present deaths
Yep. I find it bizarre how many people who are supposedly scientists criticize the Imperial modelling without even bothering to read it
On the other hand, Levitt, with access to the same Diamond Princess data, estimated that COVID-19 would “only” add ~1 month of risk (a factor ~10 less of the do nothing scenario), but *without considering any restrictions or changes in habits*...
Don't forget the maybe only 10,000 will die because of data from the DP.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.