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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Mazda Sabouri‏ @msabouri May 6
      Replying to @tylerblack32 @inden_l and

      "For example, in Utah, suicides were down sharply, and there was no increase in drug overdoses." Ballpark figure, how many of the 50 states had this dynamic? 1? 5? 10?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Tyler Black, MD‏ @tylerblack32 May 6
      Replying to @msabouri @inden_l and

      we don't have nearly enough data to know However, there is no current correlation between size of suicide decrease and size of drug overdose increase.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Mazda Sabouri‏ @msabouri May 6
      Replying to @tylerblack32 @inden_l and

      What we know was that the spike in overdoses was much larger than the dip in suicides, and that both happened within a few weeks of the lockdown going into effect (see figures 3 and 5) https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr011-508.pdf …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Tyler Black, MD‏ @tylerblack32 May 6
      Replying to @msabouri @inden_l and

      and as we all know in science, correlation IS causation🙄🙄pic.twitter.com/pkafo5kYfp

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 6
      Replying to @tylerblack32 @msabouri and

      Always worth noting that the dramatic rise in overdose deaths in the US began in November 2019. There were headlines about it in Jan 2020. In this case, it's not even really correlated that well!

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. Mazda Sabouri‏ @msabouri May 6
      Replying to @GidMK @tylerblack32 and

      Drug overdose deaths increased by 4% in 2019, and by probably around 20% in 2020. The CDC is still finalizing the 2020 data. https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/statedeaths.html …

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 6
      Replying to @msabouri @tylerblack32 and

      Yes. Becsuse the deaths started increasing at the end of 2019, and continued to be high at the start of 2020. Unless lockdowns/pandemic can retroactively cause overdose deaths, it's dishonest to imply that they are the only cause

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    8. Mazda Sabouri‏ @msabouri May 6
      Replying to @GidMK @tylerblack32 and

      Except this month by month breakdown by the CDC shows a massive spike around April, not early 2020 (see figure 3) https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr011-508.pdf …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 6
      Replying to @msabouri @tylerblack32 and

      This is a paper on nowcasting estimates of deaths due to reporting lags, and even then there is a fairly clear upward trend beginning at the start of 2019. I'm not saying the pandemic had 0 impact, merely that ignoring this is obviously absurd

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Mazda Sabouri‏ @msabouri May 6
      Replying to @GidMK @tylerblack32 and

      Figure 2 shows the trend line for 2019. It linearly went up heading into 2020, but the spring 2020 spike was massive and unlike anything we saw in 2019.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK May 6
      Replying to @msabouri @tylerblack32 and

      I have to assume that by now you must be intentionally missing my point, because I'm not sure how much more simply I can state it

      3:22 PM - 6 May 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • Derek Mereweather Tyler Black, MD
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Tyler Black, MD‏ @tylerblack32 May 6
          Replying to @GidMK @msabouri and

          i muted for good reason, haha this one is searching for evidence to prove his point, not using the evidence to inform

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Show replies

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